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Cookie Monster

2010-03-14T08:21:00.000-04:00

I spend a lot of time watching old reruns of Sesame Street on You Tube since becoming a dad. While Elmo is everywhere, my favorite is Cookie Monster. His humor is subtle, but probably makes me laugh the hardest.

Enjoy, some things are timeless. Sesame Street is one of those things. All I know is that Jim Henson had to be smoking a ton to bring his visions to life.

Spring Training is Here...Calling Mr. Morton

2010-03-02T22:17:00.001-05:00

Baseball season is upon us. The kid has reported for duty in Bradenton, FL, and all that awaits is a season full of expectations that should be fulfilled. Charlie's part of the Bucs rotation, and we're all pulling for him.

Charlie also blogs for the Pirates. As a fellow blogger, I must promote his posts. Here is the link to Charlie's entries.

Finally, I have posted a link below from the Pirates' website. The web post below was about the benefit concert Charlie played in to help raise money for the victims in Haiti. Mr. Morton is a talented musician, but I'll let his skills in the videos speak for themselves.

Good luck this season #37...We're watching ya. Remember, it's just a game. Go out and have fun, and the skills you've got will follow your mind.

Link to Article on Morton's Benefit

All I Need

Link to Charlie's Music

My Theory on Tiger Woods

2010-03-02T20:18:00.001-05:00

It's obviously been harder to find the time to post these days, but as an observer of current events, and as a golfer, I'd like to offer my humble opinion on the world's reigning #1 ranked golfer. I initially posted when the news came out here, but as time has passed and the details have followed, I will refrain from commenting on the already obvious.

Some of my short and sweet thoughts are as follows:

1. TW does not owe me an apology. I never looked at him as my hero, nor should you. Be your own hero, no one is perfect. No one.
2. It makes you wonder if you ever really know someone.
3. Unfortunately, I think it will come out that TW used performance enhancing drugs PEPs.

While all the usual debate has been done, the most fundamental question to help understand TW's behavior is "why?" What is the motive? I truly believe that TW has never been the same since his father passed. Tiger's whole motivation in life was to dominate a white-dominated sport as a person of color. And this motivation came specifically from his father Earl, who molded his son into a vehicle to truly change the world. I think the mission was accomplished, but now you see the cost.

The revelations about TW's addictions make sense. Addiction, no matter what you are addicted to, is all about medicating the pain you feel. For TW's addictions to become as strong as they were, that he would engage in behavior to risk the world that he "owned" is truly telling. But if I were to put myself in TW's shoes, perhaps his purpose and sense of direction died when Earl passed. Perhaps the pain Tiger feels is that the celebrity he has created and manufactured has reduced him to what feels like an object, a means to an end to sell product and generate dollars for everyone around him. Any being would probably medicate themselves and engage in behavior that dulled this pain too, given that everyone around you sees you as an asset, not a person. Now that the only person Tiger actually trusted and believed, the person who created the image to "just do it," is gone. Maybe the image and standard isn't what Tiger actually wants anymore now that he's woken up.

I also unfortunately think that it will later come out that TW used PEPs. The use of these drugs to live up to the standard built by TW could easily drive someone to seek any advantage to maintain their status. Where there is smoke, there's fire, and while innocent until proven, it just seems that lately there's too much smoke where a fire should be. I think if TW is truly honest with himself given the bottom he's hit, when he faces the pain he feels, he will come forward with everything and believe me, it will be all fit the pattern.

As a final note, if you think this is that far fetched, think about what Andre Agassi has recently acknowledged. While the parallels around their stories about their over-bearing dads are not deliberately brought up in this post, I think the actions Andre went through to conceal his disgust for the image he "was" during his heyday is no different than what has begun to unfold here. Wearing my golf hat now, the greatest question for golf fans is this:

Do you think Tiger will be the same golfer he was when he comes back?

Maybe. But this blogger believes that the answer is no. The motives that drove TW to be great, to dominate a sport so completely, may be gone if he truly deals with his pain. But he will probably be a happier person to have finally let go of the things that drove him to engage in the things he has. And that is the reason why we should all watch and care about the outcome.

Just my humble opinion.

Kribensis Babies

2010-01-24T20:36:00.001-05:00

Just noticed that the Kribensis pair in my fishtank had some babies. There's about 24 fry, and mom and dad are always close by. These are cute little buggers. Here's a link to some info on Kribensis breed.

Pootie Tang -- 2009 Fantasy Football Champion

2010-01-20T20:44:00.003-05:00

It's official, I won the fantasy football league this year. Team Pootie Tang went 13-3 and was #2 in the Power Rankings. Some notes from the tremendous year;

Drafted and kept:
Phillip Rivers, QB
Thomas Jones, RB
Marques Colston, WR
DeSean Jackson, WR
Matt Forte, RB

Picked up and won with:
Tim Hightower, RB
Jamaal Charles, RB
Vernon Davis, RB
Saints ST/Defense
Rob Bironas, K

After drafting Forte #4 overall, he killed me all season, but I kept him for match-ups. The pickups absolutely won me the championship. Finally, I got the first-round bye in week 14, then played the guy who had Kurt Warner week 15. I lost by 3.5 points, but then the NFL comes out and says that one of Warner's TD passes to Anquan Boldin was a lateral, and as such, ruled a rushing touchdown for Boldin, no TD for Warner.

Pootie goes from a loss of 3.5 points to a win by 2.5 and gets into the championship. I will say that the guy I beat had Manning and Collie week 16, and we all know what was going on by then. But a win is a win.

FROM THE COMMISSIONER

Congrats to Jon's Pootie Tang for winning the Championship! Jon beat out a tough team fielded by Mark's Real Men of Genius. Jon had a great year, winning 4 high points, taking the #2 seed, chasing Jason for the points title, and then winning it all. Mark also had a great year, as he made it all the way to 2nd place.

Jon wins $      for first place.
Mark takes $     for 2nd.
Jason wins $     for the points title.

Peter's Where's the Beer takes the final high points payout, and I'll be mailing that along with the remaining checks later this week. Thanks for another great season, and I hope that everyone returns next year!

Charlie Morton's First MLB Hit (08/07/08)

2009-11-28T19:49:00.004-05:00

Here's a few clips and links to Charlie's first hit. Charlie got his first MLB hit, a double, against the Arizona Dimondbacks on August 7, 2008 as an Atlanta Brave.

I'd been looking for the clip and found it on a site called Brave's Love . The clip and post-game interview are below, thanks again to Lauren for the comment on her blog! Sorry CM, couldn't edit out the subsequent pick...

Charlie's First Hit, a Double down the Left field line

Post-game Interview

Speculation on Fire Hydrants, Airbags and the #1 Golfer in the World

2009-11-28T16:09:00.008-05:00

Lots of stuff out there about Wood's "car accident." I'll let you do your own Google searching, but it doesn't look good. But the bigger question is possibly, why are you surprised? I've always been skeptical of things that look a little too perfect since we all know people who constantly try to show us how great their lives are. Be very skeptical of those who tell you their family is perfect, etc. the truth is usually inversely correlated.

This is why I'd always prefer a beer with Phil. I hope America can handle another hero who is about to fall and be exposed. All that money and fame is so intoxicating to those who are shallow, because it's all about "how things look" rather than the hard work it takes to create something that's real. I couldn't care less, I know this sort of thing happens every day somewhere, but c'mon, you've got kids. Disrespect each other, fine, you're adults, but when kids are involved, it just seems a bit more sinister and narcissistic.

Look more closely, connect the dots, and ask yourself, do you really think an air bag would deploy if you hit a fire hydrant at 10-20 mph? Give me a break. That's what you get from a guy who probably worships Jordan now that his dad has passed. Maybe we'll see Tiger on Oprah soon asking the world for forgiveness, since so many people look to Oprah for inspiration.

Should be interesting, I know, I know, innocent until proven guilty. I'm sure he was just in a hurry to get to the driving range at 2:30 AM.

My Allen Iverson Tribute

2009-11-26T10:01:00.004-05:00

Allen is retiring after a 14 year career. Man this guy was something on the court.

and the famous Practice video....Not a game!

Bladeless Fan -- Dyson

2009-10-14T21:33:00.007-04:00

Dyson, of the bagless vacuum fame, has launched his latest invention, the bladeless fan. Pretty cool idea, I've posted the video below. The fan has no blades, and as he explains, it's basically an air multiplier. In a nutshell, the fan works by creating a field of negative pressure by moving air across a curved surface. The air initially is drawn into the cylinder base, and then pushed out a slit that runs around the whole "circular frame". The small slit that the air is pushed out of and through accelerates the air much like putting your finger in a garden hose to get the water to move faster or farther does.

As the air is pushed across the curved surface of the fan's ring, the speed of the air above the inner part of the ring is moving faster than the air below the flat, outer part of the ring. This speed differential creates a pressure differential, ultimately producing an area of negative pressure. When you have negative pressure, the air then begins to move because of this pressure differential (think isobars on a weather map that ultimately result in "wind"...)Finally, what you the user ends up feeling is a cylinder of air (whose base is the size of the circular ring...) that moves towards you, versus the traditional way fans work by drawing air towards the blades, then "cutting" the air up and sending it towards you. Supposedly this cylinder of air is more forceful than the "cut" up air that a bladed fan throws at you in an inefficient manner. And once the cylinder starts moving due to the negative pressure field, air "behind the ring starts to also be drawn in and through the ring as well towards the user. Kind of makes sense actually.

It's an interesting concept, and the marketing spin is that it's safe and more powerful. The physics around this design are no different than what generates lift on an airplane wing. Looking for some reviews, but think about it, this guy makes an innovative change to a product whose design hasn't changed in centuries. Pretty awesome. Man I wish I were smart.

From the NYPost

"This is Indexed" -- Great website

2009-10-11T11:44:00.004-04:00

There is a great website out there called "This is Indexed." It's based upon the book by the same author, Jennifer Hagy. Jennifer is obviously a mathematician, and she uses a bunch of graphical functions to represent different ideas in an extremely slick and witty way. I wish I had thought of the same idea.

I've posted a pic from her website above to show an example. Here is a graph of the function f(x) = x^2. The function has a local minimum, which is important here since the dependent variable of "Confusion" drops to a minimum at a certain level of "Information" (the independent variable). But with insufficient information (Breaking News, Swine Flu) or too much information (think CNN, CNBC, a 2" snow forecast) then you get the far reaching impact of a simplistic graph shown above.

I love this site. Lots of good stuff here....enjoy. Ms. Hagy obviously shares my level of cynicism of the world and of people and their motives. Here are three more that have lots of wisdom that often goes unspoken.

"Entitlement vs. Disappointment"

"Bitterness vs. Time to Reflect"

"Time vs. Prestige and $$"

My First "Blog Post" [circa 1988]

2009-10-11T10:55:00.005-04:00

I was going through some of my stuff recently and found a newspaper clipping from the local paper that I had kept all of these years. The clipping was from "The Reporter", the local newspaper published in Lansdale, PA, back in 1988. I was in junior high, and had sent in an "op-ed/opinion" to the staff there after a well publicized Air Show crash happened at Ramstein Air Force base in Germany that year.

The Italian Air Force had been performing a maneuver called the "Pierced Heart." In this maneuver, 8 jets from a heart shape, and then one jet flies through the middle of the formation at a faster speed, piercing the heart formation, and the other jets scatter. However, on this day, the pilot who performed the pierced part of the formation collided with the main formation. Three of the 10 jets were destroyed, but worse yet was that the piercing jet crashed near the spectators, and its fuel tank made it to the spectators burning and killing many of them. One of the jets from the formation that was hit also tragically crashed into an area that had rescue helicopters, killing one of the pilots on the ground there as well. In all, 70 people were killed by the events that day.

There were two things I wanted to be growing up; a fighter pilot and a doctor. [Yeah look at me now...] So I naturally took the contrarian position and defended the pilots while acknowledging the tragic result of that day. But beyond that, looking back, it really was my first attempt at what was to later become a blog by this author.

Link to Wikipedia entry on disaster

2009 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for Telomeres

2009-10-08T15:56:00.005-04:00

This year's Nobel Prize in Medicine goes to a trio of scientists for their seminal work in the area of telomeres. When this article came across Bloomberg's wire, it gave me pause since I had cited and presented some of Dr. Blackburn's work on telomeres during my prior life as a scientist. I've blogged about my attempt to understand the super-secondary structure that DNA might adopt given these highly conserved DNA base pair sequences which might offer insight into how cellular senescence is controlled to understand a telomere's structure and possible the enzymes that interact with these chromosome ends holds great promise in the field of medicine. Congrats to Drs. Blackburn, Szostak, and Greider for their award.

Scientific American Link

Official Press Release for 2009 Award

Bloomberg Wire

Charlie Morton's Complete Game, 4-Hit Shutout

2009-10-08T15:28:00.006-04:00

Charlie threw a complete game, four hit shutout against Chicago on his last outing on Sept 30, 2009. Some quick stats from the 1st game of a day-night doubleheader in Wrigley.

Complete game, 4 hits, 0 ER
119 pitches, 76 strikes
Charlie faced 34 batters
8 K's, 3 Walks
Of the 27 outs recorded, 11 were ground balls, 6 were fly balls.

What is so impressive about this outing was that not ten weeks before, Charlie had taken the mound against the Cubs at Wrigley, and did not get out of the 1st inning, giving up 10 runs. The complete game shutout, throwing from the same bump in the same field, with the history that he had there, is about throwing 1st pitch strikes and getting into a pitcher's count.

We're proud of you Charlie, proud of how hard you fought this year, to show the League you belong. You have such an awesome privilege to pitch at the highest level, and today, the most important thing is, you proved to yourself you can do this and have fun.

Congrats, awesome stuff to watch. Remember the name, Charlie Morton.

Charlie being congratulated after the CG

From the Post Gazette

From MLB.com

From the PBC Blog

Hero of the Week - Rick Reilly from ESPN.com on Tiger Woods

2009-07-24T08:41:00.008-04:00

I think Tiger is amazing, and have certainly blogged about it. But lately, many have noticed his on course antics, and are quite frankly, growing tired of it. It's been well known that TV doesn't always cover everything during an event, and people have been quietly posting about Tiger's behavior when the camera isn't on, etc. So I will first defend Tiger somewhat, but frame this defense in the context of a hope that he might start to show a bit more on the course.

Tiger is one of the most recognized people on the planet, and a figure that transcends sports in the sense that you may not follow golf, but you know who he is. So with that said, he can't go anywhere, and people by and large are dopes, so with that in mind, it's a wonder he can tolerate these folks. But that is the price to be paid for fame. There are no free lunches. A simple example, Tiger gets paired with [insert any name here] and they are standing in the fairway waiting to hit their approach shots to the green. It's Friday, not even Sunday, no charge up the leaderboard, nothing. And so player "x" hits his approach to 15 feet and the crowd shows its appreciation by clapping. Tiger hits his approach to 15 feet, and the crowd goes berserk. Tiger's ball is no closer to the hole, yet the spectators, both on the course and in their living rooms, are screaming wildly like a bunch of dopes. These are the people that, like the tourists in NYC, have not a clue.

But even with the enormous pressure of being in the public, I do believe that Tiger owes the game a bit more that has given him so much. We've all played with the dude that throws his clubs, or yells when he makes a birdie like it was the first one ever made, but playing with these people can be one of the longest rounds of your life when you find yourself with this person. I have had the misfortune of playing with a fair number of people like this, because I often travel or get to the golf course as a "single" and get paired up. Thinking about who I might be paired up with on these rounds is a lot like gambling. On my best days, I personally have found these people somewhat fascinating, because it piques my intellectual curiosity, but even that wears off quickly. (I'll save you the suspense, the person is always a narcissist.) The game is hard, and it's the pursuit of trying to perfect the game, knowing you only borrow the game, that makes the game great to those of us who play rather than tell you the score they shot or the birdie they apparently made that no one else can.

My final point is this. I'd choose Phil every time over Tiger to drink a beer with in a bar. If you watch Phil, he gets it in the sense that he's almost as big as Tiger to their sport, and all the guy does is win majors, and give high fives to the spectators as he walks to each tee. And the fact that he does these things despite all that he has going on is remarkable, at least to me.

Links to Mickleson's Recent Off-Course Trevails

Link 1

Link 2

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

2009-07-19T21:29:00.002-04:00

This was one of my favorite books when I was a kid. I just saw the promo that Sony is putting the movie out as an animated feature. Very cool.

Morton Gets Win Against San Fran

2009-07-19T19:18:00.006-04:00

Charlie got the 2-0 win this past Saturday against San Fran and showed Bucs fans what we've known for some time. Some video of his game, and the MLB.com write-up is here.

The kid's got great stuff. Saturday night, he had great movement and kept the ball down. What was also good was that he kept hitters off balance when got second and third looks at him.

Some stats from Saturday's game:

7 innings pitched
3 hits
2 walks
6 K's

Charlie faced 25 batters, and had 10 ground outs with 2 fly outs. Mr. Morton also threw 90 pitches, 58 were strikes for a ratio of approximately 2:1. The best part about the game was that he felt good and wanted to stay out there past 7 innings.

Great win Charlie. Remember the name folks. It's fun to watch people go after their dream.

Whoops...Nobody sent Watson the Memo

2009-07-17T20:05:00.005-04:00

Two rounds of the 2009 Open Championship are in the books, and Tiger has missed the cut. The conditions were apparently brutal at Turnberry, as Open golf is supposed to be. Sometimes the weather is the only defense a course has at the end of the day.

Woods was a 13-5 favorite to win his 15th Major, but failed in his bid. You could hear him protecting his ego earlier last week when he stated that Turnberry is "harder than folks let on." Well, the bookies certainly thank you, as I'm sure they cleaned up this time around.

But the bigger story is Tom Watson. The 59 year old major Open championship winner has turned the clock back and is within range of doing something historic. While no one will doubt Tiger is the best of our generation, and will go on to break Jack's record to be the greatest until someone else comes along. But why is golf so much more exciting when guys like David Duval, Kenny Perry, and Phil are in contention versus one guy running away with it?

This man is 59...look at that release.

Just my humble opinion, but it's fun to watch the underdogs go after it. At least for me.

Enjoy your weekend Tiger. 15 will just have to wait.

The Recession, Divorce...And Americans Living Beyond Their Means

2009-07-16T12:56:00.007-04:00

There was an interesting article in the WSJ the other day that got picked up by Yahoo Finance. It's an interesting development in the context of the current recession and what couples are doing who apparently have decided that they can't stand each other anymore, and want to file for divorce. The recession is apparently causing some of these folks to put off divorce and continue to live together ("co-exist") since they can't sell their house in a down market to settle the financial claims of the assets that will be divided up and/or are afraid to go it alone in a down economy. Truly fascinating stuff from a behavioral science perspective. But perhaps it's not that surprising that a couple might find themselves forgetting why they went down the aisle, because they've been living beyond their means, spending every last buck on stuff, and now the financial stress has become bigger than them.

If you think it can't happen to you, think again. People do it all the time. If it can happen to Ed McMahon, MC Hammer, or any other celebrity who you later find out is now broke, why can't it happen to the average joe? It apparently happened to the King of Pop, and all he was was one of the biggest selling recording stars ever.

Link to WSJ Article is here

Link to Famous People who filed Chapter 11

Forgiveness, Introspection and Connie Culp, my Inspirational Person of the Week

2009-07-14T20:30:00.009-04:00

I neglected to publish this for whatever reason back when the story was first gaining national attention. Here is the re-post from back in May of this year. JW

There's a lot of bad stuff out there in the news, etc., and most times it feels like we aren't connected to it. But every once in a while, there's a story that seems innocuous at first, but reminds us all of our common bond as "higher functioning" organisms.

If you haven't heard by now, Jon and Kate are experiencing some issues (more on this later, I will no doubt surprise you), there's a swine flu out there determined to kill us all (yet the story reminds me more of the dopes who run out and buy 3 months worth of milk and bread when a small snowstorm is coming), etc. But to me, I'm always searching beyond the drama that sells ad revenue for the truly inspirational stories that give me hope for all of us. This week, I think I found that story.

Connie Culp, in my humble opinion, is one of the most courageous people you'll probably ever hear about. She is the woman who has received a face transplant after being shot by her husband in 2004. It's a horrible story, but one that reminds us all that there is more to life than just how much we own, or what score we shot in golf. Connie's story initially received attention due to the questions surrounding the "ethics" of this controversial procedure. I won't go into the arguments surrounding this part of the story, because quite frankly, I think it completely misses the point.

Ms. Culp received her new face from the Cleveland Clinic. If you listen to what she says in recent interviews, her statements are incredibly inspirational. Yes, she looks quite different, and yes, people will and do make fun of her. But all the cliches are appropriate; beauty isn't always what you can visibly see. At one point, Connie states (paraphrase) "this time a year ago, I didn't have a face. I used to be worried about my weight, my hair. It's so foolish."

So up till this point in my post, all the usual things apply. But the thing about this story that is so remarkable to me is her capacity to forgive her assailant. It's a true life lesson that we all should take with us. Connie showed me that you cannot truly live, cannot truly be happy, or truly appreciate your life until you learn how to forgive. And the life you have is the one you make.

As a side note, organized religion preaches this "forgiveness" message, but the validity of the argument is often lost since the messenger or congregation preaches "love everyone" and in the same breath, says something racists, homophobic, or otherwise, because God's loophole is that he supposedly forgives all of us for our crap. It's a joke, and the folks that seek this guidance are the even bigger joke. Said differently, if you think you could go through something comparable to what Ms. Culp has, and handle the situation with the same dignity and class that she has shown, you probably don't need to go somewhere with the herd on Sunday morning. For the rest of you, keep searching.

All you really need is someone like Connie Culp to remind you of what true forgiveness looks and sounds like. It's such a refreshing story, I'm very thankful for Ms. Culp.

Links to Connie Culp's Story are here and here .

Celebrity Soundboards

2009-07-14T18:44:00.004-04:00

This is a funny website that has various sound bytes of celebrities saying different things. Tremendous resource with lots of good clips.

Enjoy...

Celebrity Soundbytes Webpage

Elmo's World and Kevin Clash

2009-07-12T19:12:00.003-04:00

As a new parent, I must say that I have been fully immersed in Elmo's world. In a lot of ways, it's Elmo's world, and I just live in it. Allison loves Elmo, for whatever reason, perhaps it's the voice or just the eyes, but he is a cute character.

I grew up on Sesame Street. I was surfing around on YouTube, and found tons of clips of Elmo. One that is quite popular on YouTube is Elmo's guest appearances on a talk show down in Australia. One clip that stuck out was the clip of Kevin Clash, Elmo's puppeteer. It's amazing to watch how these folks bring these pieces of material to life.

Enjoy...just a "FYI" post. It's pretty amazing how these guys do this. I am convinced that Jim Henson did a lot of drugs. Sometimes, the results aren't always bad.

Elmos and Kevin Clash

Elmo on Rove Live

Dave Matthews Covers

2009-07-11T11:12:00.002-04:00

As an aspiring, self-taught guitarist, the internet has made learning guitar even easier. During college, my absolute favorite all-time band was DMB. Prior to DMB, I loved the usual Stones, Led Zeppelin, and Bob Dylan. But there was something about Dave's music that was so new and different, much like when I felt when I first heard Nirvana and Pearl Jam. It's interesting to think about how interwoven music is within our society, and where we are at the time. I have always thought that the music of the 60's was so good because good music starts from your soul. Since the 60's were characterized by chaos, you could see this get channeled through the lyrics of great song writers like CCR, Hendrix, The Grateful Dead, Neil Young, and CSNY. I digress, but you get the picture. The final word on this is today's music sucks. But I guess that's indicative of where we are in the cycle.

Well I remember buying DMB's Remember Two Things at the Bucknell bookstore my sophomore year, and it was the precursor to an amazing body of music. Agreed, I am an old school fan, liking DMB's early music much more than its current form. But as a guitarist, you have to love his playing. It's amazing. I was driving around the other day and Pandora chose "The Best of What's Around" and it just made me smile. The song is like scotch, no worries, just chillin'.

So I am posting a couple of YouTube videos of Dave's early days in Virgina before he went nuclear. And I also want to post a video of this guy on YouTube as well who does covers of DMB on acoustic guitar. He's one of the best I've seen in the sense that he plays identical to Dave all over the fret. The guy's amazing.

Dave's Early Days

Akangell on YouTube (DMB Covers)

So Much to Say - Cover

Internet Sites to Learn Acoustic Covers (This guy dumbs it down in a major way):
Guitar Sage

Guitar Tabs

Michael Jackson's Ghost?

2009-07-11T11:06:00.005-04:00

Creepy video on the web that was supposedly seen on CNN live with Larry King.

Who knows, in these days of hype and ratings, the skeptic in me says it was planned or manufactured. Who knows...

Ghana: Digital Dumping Ground

2009-06-24T20:03:00.011-04:00

Last night was a slow night for sports...so I found myself clicking through a very interesting program. Frontline is a great series; last night's program was titled "Ghana: Digital Dumping Ground."

The show piqued my interest because when I was in B-school, I was in a class that was about socially related business issues, for lack of a better word. One of the classes was about how China was becoming the world's dumping ground for what is called "e-waste." This waste is related to old CRT monitors, keyboards, and computer desktop towers that were discarded by "the West." The reason this class stuck with me was because 1) it was interesting and made you think 2) there was almost a riot during the lecture since there were many disturbing images shown to the class. These images were considered inflammatory to my Chinese classmates. Images of children sitting atop massive piles of old outdated monitors, etc. were shown. Remember, we were in b-school, and China is the world's next economic engine. These pictures were humiliating to my Chinese classmates, who viewed the images as insensitive...

Well I digress, but the show was really interesting. Suffice it to say, our professor was not out to humiliate anyone (at least I don't think), but rather bring to light a very real and growing problem that flies under the mainstream media. It's not just China that receives all of these items, but rather, as the map above shows, many places of lower socioeconomic regions. Ok, ok, I have a point, and here's why you should care about this problem, beyond the obvious reasons.

Two Reasons Why You Should Care...Beyond the Obvious During one part of the segment, the investigators showed how people's hard drives are ending up in these distant dumping places. No joke apparently. I was skeptical, but low and behold, the investigators bought hard drives from folks in Ghana who got them by sifting through the garbage. (Apparently, if you melt a motherboard down, you can take the copper that is left and sell for about $1 USD. Since a hard drive can fetch money, this is obviously the hand of economics driving the people to look through the waste...) One woman purchased a hard drive, and plugged it into another computer to read its contents. There were pictures, credit card info, you name it. If you are surprised, don't be. The hard drive, with an operating system on it, is the computer...So you might think you're wiping the data, but the only way to truly wipe it is to physically destroy the platters in the drive. Easier said than done, as I've blogged about before..
.

The segment also showed one clip where they had found a hard drive from Northrup Gruman, a defense contractor. When they looked at the drive, they found, among other things, classified documents of government contracts won or applied for. Applying for government contracts is apparently a highly confidential process. The data was shown to the FBI's homeland security deputy, who promptly told you why you should care about this...To paraphrase:

"This is unbelievable. In the wrong hands, these documents would show someone how to infiltrate a government agency. Once you have someone you don't want on the inside, you don't have security."

There you have it. Check the program out, it's worth it just to show you how a seemingly innocuous decision made can leave ripples around our world and come back to bite you.

Link to Hard Drive Issue

Link to Hard Drive Issue

Google Chrome's Logo

2009-06-13T09:54:00.006-04:00

This is an interesting picture of one blogger's interpretation of Google's logo for its Chrome browser. I have never used the browser, but it is worth noting why they couldn't have come up with anything else.

The tech war is once again becoming an interesting arena. If you think corporations aren't driven by their arch enemy, think again. What's a bigger question is that an arch enemy, or at the very least, someone who pushes them, is necessary to move forward, not bailouts. Look at the Cold War, and how silly that all seems now. If you don't believe me, watch the video below, which is what they used to show children so they were prepared for a nuclear war. And yet, we're the only country that has ever used a tactical strategic nuke. Organizations, people, you need a motive to create, innovate and move the collective forward. Sadly, we have a new enemy pushing us, and after we conquer them, we will find another one to drive us. Fear is a great motivator. Of that I'm sure.

Jackass Prank

2009-06-12T22:25:00.004-04:00

We were talking about this video when the Leigh's were in town last weekend. It's by the crew on Jacka**, hilarious stuff. Johnny Knoxville puts a car seat on top of his car with a baby "doll" in it, and proceeds to drive off...

Seriously, what would you do if you saw this?

So Scary

2009-06-12T16:25:00.000-04:00

I don't even know where to begin. No, it's not a clip from the terrorists, but it might as well be.

I've posted a video clip below of a trailer for the movie "Jesus Camp." Seriously F**KED up. I don't know who is more disturbing, these kids or Al Qaeda. I'm actually pretty sure these kids are the same and hopefully on Homeland Security's list. But maybe it's not the kid's to blame per se, but certainly the parents.

This camp was located in South Dakota, go figure, the interior of the country, but you know, these folks are probably closer than you think....parts of PA are not much different.

I think I'll just leave it at the clip. If you can't see the problem with this, you should check yourself in.

Here's some other links, in case you aren't convinced at how disturbing this is.

Link

Link 1

Link 2

Project Natal

2009-06-11T20:03:00.006-04:00

Well, it's finally here. I think that this was inevitable, and MSFT should thank Nintendo for initially building the market for this application. At the most recent E3 show, MSFT unveiled its latest application for the Xbox 360. The project, codenamed "Natal", utilizes technology to do full-body motion capture. This is essentially the same technology used in film production when people where the body suits with "balls" all over them to capture their movements. Here's a link in case you are thinking about doing some motion capture and need a suit.

Wow, this is really cool. The battle to seize control of your living room between Sony and Microsoft has just gone nuclear. Round 1 went to MSFT with their launch of Xbox before Sony, Round 2 went to Sony for the entertainment industry's endorsement of Blu-Ray vs. HD, and now in Round 3, the Wii sets the table and MSFT runs with it.

Competition is a good thing, it drives us forward. Remember that when you think about the state of affairs and bail-out nation.

Kid's Back

2009-06-11T19:45:00.007-04:00

Charlie Morton fans, he's back. Pittsburgh Pirates get Charlie and two other players for McLouth. Charlie is the #5 pitcher, and his next start is next Tuesday against Minnesota.

Welcome back to the Show Charlie. Remember, all you can control is the ball, your location, and your state of mind. Get out of your own way, and dare yourself to be great. We're all pulling for you bro.

Now go get it.

Triumph the Comic Insult Dog

2009-06-05T15:55:00.007-04:00

This dog is the best. I think this clip was on Conan, and it's spot on. Turn the volume down if you are at work. Triumph goes to NYC and talks to the Star Wars geeks that are lined up for attack of the clones premiere. Spock makes an appearance at the end, it's worth it just for that.

Seriously, people really dress up as Star War characters? Get ready to laugh.

Part 1

Part 2

Links to Other Triumph Bits

F&(#*@&$!K -- Westbrook's Surgery

2009-06-04T22:08:00.004-04:00

If this is true, then the Bird's 2009 season is going to be extremely tough. I wonder if D-Mac will pack it in, since no Westbrook exposes McNabb.

This sucks.

Link to Story on Westbrook's Surgery

The Best "App" for Blackberry Bold

2009-05-30T19:44:00.004-04:00

Pandora is an application for phones. It is basically a smart internet radio service that allows you to create radio stations based upon your interests. The station then generates a song list that is based upon other people's similar interests. The technology is fairly well established, but for some reason, this one works really well for your phone. You can go to their website over the internet to set up your station/interests, but be forewarned. The free service tries to monetize the service via lots of ads. But for some reason, there are no ads or pop-ups on my Bold.

It's a really good free service, and worth it if you have the unlimited data package.

Link to Pandora

Google Maps and Street View

2009-05-30T09:56:00.009-04:00

I have a good friend from B-school whose name shall go unmentioned. This person hates Google, swears by it, so I've dedicated this post to him.

I'm a big fan of Google Maps, given that it seems robust and much better than Yahoo maps, and god forbid Mapquest. If you are still using Mapquest, do yourself a favor and stop.

Google Maps is on my Blackberry, and the GPS function is phenomenal. I have used it on several occasions, and am glad that I didn't spend the $5,000 to get a GPS mounted into the car as an option when I can get it on my phone. One thing I had always wondered is how the street views are generated on Google maps...Below is an image of this Streetview, that gives you an actual view of the street you may want to navigate.

Well if you search a bit, you can see that the street views are generated with cars that have cameras mounted on their roofs. It's fairly amazing, but one thing should occur to you when you see this. If the government was doing this, would you think the technology is so cool?

Makes you think, and reminds me of the "law of unintended consequences." Google is a fascinating technology with endless potential really. But with great power comes great responsibility, someone once said. Most often you might think of these words in the context of "stem cell research" or "nuclear power" but sometimes the most disruptive, potentially devastating technology can seem as innocuous as an internet map that is a huge improvement over the last generation of web-based map technology.

If nothing else, it makes you stop and think. But if you've got nothing to hide, what's the fuss? I am personally of the opinion that there are too many people on the planet, so any deterrence is fine with me if it makes folks think before they act.

Links to Google Streetview Controversy here, and here

Wikipedia entry on Google Streetview here

Video of Streetview Car in action

GigaPan -- Unbelievably cool technology

2009-05-30T09:00:00.004-04:00

I had heard about this technology earlier, but then stumbled across it recently. If you haven't heard or seen, check it out here. In a nutshell, it photo stitches together thousands of pictures from independent sources to generate a "whole" picture.

There is an especially incredible "gigapan" of Obama's inauguration. It's located here. The cool thing too is that you can pan and zoom. It's really incredible. My personal favorite is here. It's a nighttime shot of the NYC skyline from Weehawken. This is exactly what I would see riding the bus into work every morning. The city is truly beautiful.

The technology was based upon work done by NASA, Carnegie Mellon and Google. Another win for Google, I want to hate them, but I think that in 20 years, they will own MSFT, and MSFT knows it.

Gigapan of Duck Bay on Mars

Here's some other links to Gigapan related websites.

Gigapan Magazine
Gigapan Facebook Page

Gwinnett Braves -- Morton gets the win

2009-05-25T21:20:00.004-04:00

Charles threw 7 innings of 4 hits ball, giving up just 1 ER yesterday. The kid is 6-2 as a starter and has an ERA of 2.91 in his rehab assignment with the Gwinnett Braves.

Here is the link to Charlie's latest outing...

New Blackberry -- Code Named "Onyx"

2009-05-25T09:05:00.004-04:00

I'll keep this short and sweet. I've loved Blackberry every since I can remember. I used to have a Palm PDA back in the day, but now, I must say that the I am addicted to my Blackberry Bold. I looked at the iPhones, and they are neat. But I just couldn't get around the keyboard issue.

Here is a site I frequent often. It's www.crackberry.com, and the author has access to new products from RIMM. BTW, RIMM traded down from a high of $110 since the beginning of 2008 to around 40-50, but has since rebounded. I think the following blackberry has introduced has kept their product cycles robust, since the latest innovation was WiFi and a better display from the Curve.

Enjoy. RIMM and Blackberry, the best things to come out of Canada.

Link to Video Comparison of "Onyx" to Bold, Curve, Storm
If nothing else, the Johnny Cash is worth it.

Link to Comparison/Review of "Onyx" (March 24, 2009)

Very Cool Time Lapse Videos

2009-05-18T20:46:00.002-04:00

Flatiron Building New York City from Brian Przypek on Vimeo.

I stumbled upon a cool time lapse website. The site has lots of time lapse videos of different areas. Above is the time lapse of the Flat Iron building in NYC.

Here is a link to the site....

A Nice Story in the News

2009-05-18T19:31:00.004-04:00

Here's a nice story that's making its rounds. A mother got her degree today. Apparently, her son, who was serving in Iraq, flew back to surprise her and give his mom her diploma. Good stuff. Congrats to them both.

Link is here.

Ass of the Week

2009-05-13T21:21:00.007-04:00

There are three recipients for this week's award...Reps. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii), Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.) and Mike Simpson (R-Idaho). Apparently these three elected congressmen want to investigate college football's BCS (Bowl Championship Series.)

Don't these people have more important things to worry about? There is always a motive; if you read between the lines, the motive gets back to Hawaii and Boise State being kept out of the series despite having undefeated seasons. Why were these teams kept out of the BCS in the past? Because the invisible hand of economics dictates that not many people would watch those two teams. To quote elected official Neil Abercrombie, who argues for the very reason as to why these two teams were left out:

Abercrombie said the matter is worthy of federal review because college football is big business with hundreds of millions of dollars at stake.

"It's money. That's what this is all about," he said.

No sh*t. I'm sure these three entered politics to help people.

I'm sure congressmen Simpson is on the 3rd weiner-speeder-bike...

4 Milion Snuggie's Sold

2009-05-13T21:00:00.006-04:00

If you haven't heard by now, here is another sign that something is seriously wrong, or at least, there's something seriously wrong with at least 4 million people. Apparently, USA Today has reported that the Snuggie has sold 4 million units as of Jan 2009. If you have no idea what I am talking about, please refer to the infomercial below. The family of idiots looks like a cult. Thank god they didn't wear the white ones for the commercial...

I remember seeing this infomercial while up with Allison at like 4AM back in December, and honestly, I thought I was hallucinating from the sleep deprivation. Apparently not, sadly it's for real. While there's lots I could say, I think I'm most upset with myself for not thinking up the idea because clearly I believe the market is potentially endless for this crap. Hopefully the inventor is selling it below cost, so that he/she goes bankrupt. My theory is that the birth of the Snuggie was a manufacturing mistake, and someone said, well, we've got 4 million of them, some idiot will buy it. (Remember button candy? That was clearly a clogged nozzle for some candy at Willy Wonka's...next thing you know, you have button candy.)

4 million idiots later....Put on a f#^%@#g sweatshirt, you Klingons. No wonder the jobs are heading overseas.

Gary Dell'Abate's First Pitch at Citi Field (5/9/09)

2009-05-12T20:59:00.003-04:00

Here's a clip of Gary Dell'Abate, the producer from Howard Stern's show. They've been railing him for 2 days, and, well, it was well deserved.

Enjoy. Oooo fa.

Another Trip Down Computer Memory Lane

2009-05-10T09:41:00.005-04:00

Here's another great post on old school computer hardware and software. If you recognize the items on this list, you probably had a Panasonic KX-1124 dot matrix printer printing boldface by printing the same line three times.

Post on old school computer stuff is here...

Bill Gates, Commodore 64 Easter Egg, and Computer Archaeology

2009-05-06T20:02:00.005-04:00

If you are a computer/techie geek like me, you owe it to yourself to check out the following blog post...The author walks through some of the early folklore that surrounds Microsoft and Bill Gates. Two things leap out at you after reading the story:

1. Computer programmers were incredibly paranoid, and for good reason. Those who recognized the technology's application and potential knew the stakes were enormous.

2. The early computers that predate what we have today is a great reminder of the progress that has occurred. Singularity is certainly closer than we were just 30 years ago. In fact, etching and circuit width is the latest bottleneck to processor speed. It's amazing to see the old 8-bit architectures that laid the foundation for the 64-bit technology that exist today.

For those who don't know, "Easter eggs" are things that programmers put into their work that are secret. But they are accessible, usually via some special action to trigger the special treat. Here is a link devoted to various easter eggs found in various formats (DVD movies, software, etc.). As a side note, the first egg i found was the one in Excel; the original programmers apparently put the game "Spy Hunter" into Excel 97, and the game would appear upon a certain formula and sequence of events in Excel.

Anyhow, for those that follow the folk lore of microsoft, check out the blog titled "Pagetable". The post on Bill Gates' first easter egg to send Commodore a message is a good one.

Link to Pagetable -- Software Archaeology

The Kid's Still Kicking

2009-05-06T19:51:00.003-04:00

Charlie Morton is doing a rehab stint down in the minors for Atlanta. He's working through a minor injury, but hopefully will get back to the Show soon. If you want to follow his progress, the links are below.

Let's go brother...do what you do.

Link to Charlie's last outing

Link to the Gwinnett Braves

Link to Charlie's stats with Gwinnett

Tom Toles -- True Brilliance

2009-04-21T23:16:00.009-04:00

True brilliance, again by Tom Toles at the Washington Post simple short and to the point. I don't even know where to begin with the current state of affairs, but this cartoon is a nice starting point. Much more to come on why the current rally has no fundamentals behind it, why volatility is resulting in traders leading the momentum, mark-to-market is saving capital ratios of otherwise insolvent banks, and profits are true accounting artifacts without real economic merit behind them.

Fear and greed.

The bailouts remind me of the show "Extreme Makeover" with that idiot Ty running around screaming at everyone, etc. I know, I know, it's TV, which is sold to the dopey masses (yes that's me watching Idol and Lie to Me). Create drama, push product. But here's the reason I hate this show; it's the same reason why I hate the bailouts.

If you watch the show, the set-up is by and large always the same "car crash." Some family has gotten itself into some trouble, and they are living in "dire straits". So in comes the ABC crew, sends them on a vacation, and promises to build them the house they've always wanted, but could never afford, etc.

Now don't get me wrong, there is some genuine tragedy in this show and some of it is not self-generated, so I'm not disgusted by the family's situation. I find myself more annoyed by the house they end up building the family. I get it, a big gaudy house sells ad revenue from Sears, Ford, etc. We all feel better watching a family in need get what they otherwise can't. But in all honesty, they should just build the family a modest house, and set up a college fund with a financial advisor, so the family can gain the skills they need to be financially self-sufficient. What does giving someone a large house prove or teach the family? What does propping up a car company that makes cars no one wants to buy do besides allocate capital in a wasteful fashion? If moral hazard is a the only solution, then the situation must be incredibly bad, and much worse than you and I are even being told. Just watch what happens after the bank stress tests.

I suppose the best part is that the basis for the show is, to me, a subtle microcosm of present America and the path we took to get into the trouble we are in (BTW, google Glass-Steagall...the seeds for the credit bubble were sown long before Greenspan and Bush got here. They just kept the beer flowing.) Americans wake up thinking they should have huge material things to be considered successful. Blame the banks, yell at AIG and the TARP money, etc. the average American probably couldn't even explain the TARP or TALF programs. But I wonder how many of the folks that are yelling are the same people that got themselves an exotic mortgage with the intent to live beyond their means or flip a house for quick profit they can no longer flip? There was a market for this stuff, and markets need demand before supply is ever created. Forget about houses, just think credit cards. There's plenty of blame to go around.

Guns don't kill people, people do. It's like the drug addict that blames drug dealer but never themselves. But don't worry, superman is going to save the world.

American Idol

2009-04-21T21:46:00.012-04:00

This year's American Idol has been painful to watch in the early going, and I've alluded to why I've become hooked on the show here. One of my dreams would be to be able to sing while playing guitar, having taught myself how to play.

The three pictured in this clip are probably the most deserving to make it through to the finals. However, it's become painfully obvious how much better one contestant is versus all of the rest this season. Adam Lambert has in my opinion, completely exposed how ordinary the others are. It's true, these three all have tremendous vocal ability, but week in and week out, Adam continues to take huge risks that show not just how great his vocals are, but that he can interpret a song that's been done a million ways in that million+1 way that is so cool. The evolution of his celebrity began with his rendition of "Ring of Fire" (WTF???), and then broke out with his original version of Smokey Robinson's "Tracks of My Tears" (Holy sh*t) to his performance of Gary Jules/Tears for Fears song "Mad World" (Wow, the guy's for real) to finally tonight's version of "If I can't have you" (seriously, how do you make that disco upbeat song into a power-ballad? That guy just did it. Unf*#%ingbelivable.) The arc to celebrity has been really cool to watch evolve; in marketing, they call it the tipping point.

It's hard to really explain, but it's something that you see and just say "I can't really put into words what celebrity is, but I do know what it looks like." And that's kind of how you see things after this guy performs. To put another way, Paula Abdul is a complete trainwreck this season. But for some reason, her antics and words are only a distraction when speaking after the other performances. With this guy, she still says stupid things, but his performance is so memorable, you don't really remember what she says.

The only real question I have is, I think it's been acknowledged that Adam is gay. I wonder if America is ready for a "gay" american idol? I suspect they are, and hope so, because this guy is seriously an amazing singer/artist. Talent is talent. Good luck Adam. It's fun and inspiring to watch someone succeed in achieving their dreams.

Tracks of my Tears

Mad World

Frontline - Bush's War

2009-04-21T21:03:00.008-04:00

For those who want to look beyond the headlines related to Iraq, you should watch Frontline's program "Bush's War." By posting about this, I am not taking a position, but this program is fascinating and gives a view of the events leading up to "shock and awe." To PBS's credit, the program examines the events that led to the decision to go in by looking at it from the perspective of the CIA, White House, FBI, Justice Dept., etc. If you watched Colin Powell present to the U.N. about the mobile missile launchers, etc. this program offers a fascinating behind the scenes that led to that presentation. The key takeaway is that you see how organizational dysfunction can lead to decisions that may be sub-optimal. While that statement is anything but profound, the stakes were enormous, so you owe it to yourself to at least understand potentially how we made the decision to go in with the best information we had at the time. This program makes it apparent that the information was all over the place. I think if nothing else, the program is a tribute to the brave men and women who have lost their lives over there.

Most who know me know I am fairly conservative on lots of things, and liberal on others, but really anything but political since at the end of the day I am a true cynic, but this program is worth watching. Albeit, it's an op-ed piece, but for those willing to set their political affiliations aside for the greater questions, you do have to ask, where are the WMDs?

Fast forward to today, and if nothing else, this program offers a possible answer as to how we potentially got the leadership we have today and why this country likely voted into office someone most had never ever even heard of, and looked the other way when most tough issues came up. It may have had nothing to do with race; things apparently were so bad people were ready for a change, no matter what it took.

Funny Superbowl Commercial from Careerbuilder.com

2009-04-21T20:33:00.004-04:00

I had to post the below "movie" since it was a hilarious spot by Careerbuilder.com during the past Superbowl. The clip below is just part of the whole commercial...if you missed the spot during the game this past January, you should check it out. The ad agency for careerbuilder is quite good, and they have clearly hit a vibe with folks during these tough times. (BTW, most who know me know that I love animals, probably more than people all else equal, so the below clip is meant to get a harmless laugh, nothing more.)

The original full commercial is here...enjoy.

I'm Back...I Think

2009-04-21T20:00:00.008-04:00

So after a short hiatus, I'm back. Lots to post on, so hopefully with baby Allison finally sleeping through the night (mostly) I can start to find some time to begin writing my crap again.

Don't be blaming me daddy...!

Allie and big cousin Ava...

This is SportsCenter

2009-01-13T22:42:00.005-05:00

I remember when these commercials came out...They were instant classics. If you are a sports fan, then you know what I'm talking about. I've posted the link to ESPN's SportsCenter Commercials. They are organized by time period... I think one of my early favorites was the one with Charlie Steiner where everyone wants to "play box "with him since he covered boxing matches, and he ends up punching the Syracuse Orangeman mascot out in the parking lot because he's had enough. Or the recent commercial with LT putting mail in the wrong slots because of his visor.

I've been looking for these...enjoy, they are tremendous.

Link to "This is SportsCenter commercial archive

American Idol -- Why It's Brilliant

2009-01-13T21:39:00.005-05:00

So I have to admit that over the past 2 years, Erin has managed to successfully get me hooked on American Idol. I will confess that I am more interested in the early shows, and by the time it's the finals, I pretty much have lost interest. So I found myself asking the question, why do I find myself drawn to this show? For those who know me, you'd be shocked to think I actually watch this show.

The easy answer is that I find myself drawn to the show for the trainwrecks that show up and sing. It's astounding to watch people sing horribly, and then act shocked that professionals find them so untalented. My favorite personality last year in the early rounds was Alexis Cohen, the girl from Allentown, PA. She kept telling Simon to "take it" in her follow-up interview.

Maybe the answer is I watch because the producers always show someone that reminds you that there are some really good people out there. Like the girl on tonight's show who started a group that goes and sings at senior centers so the seniors don't have to be alone. That's pretty awesome, you have to admit. Her parents must be so proud, I know I'd be.

But ultimately, I realized the the draw for me at least, is that there is something truly inspirational watching people go after their dreams. I've posted about this before, but it's true. We all talk about having a vision for our life, but how many of us truly go after our dream? It's easy to identify and watch the auditioner on the show that will get through. But I always find it more fascinating to try and to identify the person that will continue to go after their dream even when the experts tell them not to. Quitting is easy; as the saying goes, tough times don't last, tough people do.

I guess that's it, that's the hook for me. This show reminds you to never stop a person from trying to realize their dreams. My hope is that Alexis is realizing her dream somewhere....

Fox Network's "Lie to Me" TV Show

2009-01-13T21:25:00.003-05:00

Just saw the promos for Fox's new drama, "Lie to Me". Link to show info is here, interesting that a network picked up a show that is about two experts that understand the signals people give when they lie...

You may remember my post on this topic last February2008, here.

I think it's interesting that this show might have a potential market ("following").

Good Luck BO

2009-01-12T22:14:00.004-05:00

Toles is awesome. What a mess. Don't believe the hype, it's all ambition. But it can't be much worse than the legacy of the last 8 years.

And as far as the tillion dollar stimulus is concerned, remember my post earlier on the four levers to drive economic growth (post is here). Consumption, Investment and Trade Exports are all turning negative, so government spending, unfortunately, is the only, quick lever available.

What a Game...The Eagles are in the NFC Championship Game

2009-01-12T22:00:00.006-05:00

So the #6 seed goes on the road and beats Minnesota...and then this past weekend, bingo. The Giants are left for dead. What a defense, Jim Johnson is awesome, put the ball in Eli's hands, sans Plax, and the Birds earn a trip to Arizona. One more game, do you believe...?

I am sure it's been written, but I believe that benching D-Mac was Andy Reid's moment of clarity. It's very obvious that Andy has always tried to prove that he made the right pick taking Donovan as the #1 pick back in 1999 by creating gameplans that force Donovan to throw the ball all over the lot. The Birds finally look balanced, and the defense is playing out of its mind. Defenses win championships, it's been proven over and over again.

Go Birds...Please don't let this ride end. Let's shock the world Philly.

Charlie Morton's First Hit Against Arizona D-Backs -- Aug 7, 2007

2009-01-10T23:39:00.008-05:00

As promised, I had been searching for a video of Charlie's first hit against the D-backs last August. I have been following young Charlie's major league debut, and posted on his first big league hit last August here. "Lauren T" from Atlanta publishes a blog and put up a post that has Charlie's first hit. The site, called "Braves Love" is here. Lauren commented on one of my posts about CM, and let me know she had a video of his first hit.

Looking forward to good things from the kid next year.

Titleist Pro V1 Ball vs Callaway Patents in the News -- 2009

2009-01-10T18:19:00.008-05:00

I had blogged about this issue before here, but recently Golf.com reported that Titleist is working out an arrangement with its retail vendors related to taking their current Pro V1 stock off the market. Titleist will then replace these with their updated ball that does not infringe Callaway's patent claims.

What a mess for Titleist. I've posted links to the various press releases related to these developments.

Golf.com Article

Titleist Statement

Callaway's Statement

Tom Toles and the Economy

2008-10-25T09:19:00.005-04:00

If you haven't followed by now, Tom Toles captures it like no other.

New Tenants in the Fish Tank

2008-10-25T09:00:00.006-04:00

I recently was "evicted" from my home office, and as part of the deal, I had to paint the walls for the new tenant, baby Allison, pink....So the nursery is all painted, and the furniture is on the way...!

However, as part of getting the nursery painted, I had to move my desk, books, and aquarium down to the basement. The desk wasn't too bad, just a piece of glass and supports, but the aquarium was another story.

Well cut to the chase, I moved the tank down by myself "successfully", which is a relative word. The tank didn't break, but moving a fish tank in general is a whole process. I drained 90% of the water (55 gallons) because I had to, and moved the fish to a holding tank. Once the tank was in place downstairs, I had to recharge the tank. I had no choice but to discard more than half the water, which has dire consequences.

When recharging the tank, I knew there would be a risk of a bacterial bloom, since bacteria in the new water, which is different from the nitrosomas, would probably go crazy with the food source in the gravel. But after watching for a day and a half, nothing, and all levels looked good. So the fish went back in. Big mistake.

I went out to run some errands and came back to see most of the fish struggling to breath in the cloudy water. I managed to save 2 of the fish, but it was a sad day. So moral of the story is, if you have to move a tank, try and save at least 50% of the water. If you can't, then keep fish in holding tank longer until bloom occurs.

The happy part of this story is that I put in some new fish. Below is a picture of the Golden Ram I saved, thank god, and I bought him a mate who you can see in the far left background.. I also got 2 Blue rams, which are smaller in size, but these cichlids from South America are quite peaceful. I also got a Syndontis, which is really cool, but he hides during the day in the rock because he doesn't like the light. Finally, got some Juli corycats. One of them is picture below as they all camped out by the bloodworm larvae in the foreground...

The Volatility Index, the S&P500, and the Bubbles

2008-10-23T09:48:00.009-04:00

I've posted a chart that shows the S&P500 vs. the VIX, or volatility index. The VIX is an index that represents the activity of option buying on the Chicago Board of Trade. This index is often referred to in the press as the "Fear Index". Without getting into the particulars, the VIX represents the option buying. The index trades at a higher price when option buying picks up, which is a sign that traders are trying to hedge away the risk of owning an asset (in this case, stocks.)

The S&P500 index is on the left, the VIX price is on the right. The picture tells everything, but some things to point out:

The VIX and the S&P are negatvely correlated. When one goes up, the other goes down
During the last Tech bubble ('99 - '02) the VIX had support at $20, but often traded up during the Bubble as traders worried that the IT companies like Pets.com had no real earnings, or weren't worth more than GE...
The VIX peaked when the Tech bubble began to burst around end of 2001
The VIX then traded down heavily as the Fed eased rates and kept them low to stimulate the economy. All that really happened was 3 new asset Bubbles (Credit/Housing/Corporate Earnings)
The S&P peaked at ~1500 during both the Tech and recent bubble.
The VIX is currently at 70. In relative terms, this environment we're in is far from over, at least from a market sentiment point of view. Everytime you hear someone you someone say "the bottom has formed", keep you money in stable value for a bit longer. It's where I moved our money last July '07. Probably more luck than skill, but you know what they say.

This is the chart I've been staring at for the last 2 years. The 2 bubble peaks are undeniable. The VIX is just the market catching up with what was already apparent but no one wanted to acknowledge. Sometimes it takes you-know-what to stay on the sideline even though everyone else is drinking and dancing.

I think the bottom forms when the VIX starts to stabilize around 20-30, but just my opinion. I'm in capital preservation mode.

Nobel Prize in Chemistry for Green Fluorescent Protein

2008-10-08T09:28:00.011-04:00

Green fluorescent protein was isolated from the green fluorescent jellyfish, Aequorea victoria. Seems like hardly a big deal, except that today the scientists who discovered this interesting jellyfish received the 2008 Nobel Prize in chemistry for their work. What's all the fuss?

When I was a grad student at WSU in 1996 for biochemistry, I was studying telomeres and solving the structure of the ACCCT DNA motif. I was asked to present my work at the 5th annual Protein Crystallography conference at the University of Oregon that year, and was pretty nervous. But when I got there, I realized that, much like today, I was nobody. The buzz was all around the presenter after me, who had solved the structure of green fluorescent protein. It was quite a scene, and I remember asking myself what all the commotion was about.

A Glowing Jellyfish, a Nobel Prize? First, the jellyfish was found to fluoresce green, and scientists were perplexed as to why. Think about it, we see something that doesn't make sense, and we investigate as to why the jellyfish glows green. Probably some evolutionary favorable trait that allows a deep water organism to illuminate its surroundings to find food, or scare its predators.

The Structure of GFP The structure is quite elegant. Proteins are made up of amino acids that are linked together via an amide bond (N-C). There are 20 amino acids, and they are linked sequentially in different and distinct combinations to produce a long peptide polymer. Each amino acid has a different side chain, which has a certain chemistry, if you will, to it that makes each amino acid distinct. GFP is made up of 238 amino acids. If you're still with me, here's where nature's beauty "unfolds" (no pun intended.)

The 238 amino acids are linked together to form the basis for GFP protein. This "sequence" is called the protein's primary structure. Guess what? There is a secondary structure, dictated by the chemistry of the protein's amino acids' amide bonds. Since proteins are hydrophilic, or water loving, the amino acids arrange themselves to hydrogen bond in the most energetically favorable state with water molecules. That is to say, hydrogen bonds are formed with water molecules to form what is called a "beta sheet". This beta sheet can be thought of as ribbons of amino acids that stablize themselves, via structure, in water, through hydrogen bonding.

Stay with me The sequence of the 238 amino acids is GFP's primary structure. The hydrogen bonding by these amino acids with water molecules is GFP's secondary structure. So most every protein has a tertiary structure. The beta sheet of GFP folds back upon itself to form what is called a "Beta Barrel" or " Beta Can." This formation is again driven by the interaction of the protein with "itself" and the water environment. Remember, all those amino acids have distinct side chains, and these side chains have distinct chemistries. So in the tertiary structure, the protein "folds" to form a structure to make sure all of the amino acid side chains that like water face outwardly and interact with water, and side chains that don't like water are shielded from the water. So for GFP, looking at the beta barrel cartoon, the water hatin' stuff is shielded because it's located between "ribbons" and thus, shielded from water. The water loving stuff is hanging off the ribbons and interacting with the water. (I'm overly simplifying things, but you get the point I hope.) As a final note, the ribbons could have folded up into any structure, but the beta barrel is the most energy efficient structure given GFP's primary structure (sequence of amino acids). Nature is elegant, we are anything but. (Great link with pictures on protein structure here.)

Back to the GFP's Structure and its Applications If you remember nothing else, just know that the GFP is a beta barrel with a chromophore protected in the center of the barrel. The chromophore in this case is formed via an interaction between Amino acid #65 (Serine 65), Tyrosine #66, and Glycine #67 that absorbs blue light and emits green, giving GFP its green glow. Neat, but again, what's all the commotion?

Well you can create different chromophores to GFP and have the protein emit different colors of light. Think red, blue, green, yellow, etc., any wavelength that is visible. So the big picture goes like this:

You can create any "fluorescence" you want, given changing the chromophore by changing amino acids 65, 66 67 or some combo of the three...
You can link green fluorescent protein to other molecules....
Therefore you can link green fluorescent protein variant that emits color x,y,z, etc. to any molecule...
Build an detector that looks for molecule via "colored" light, and now you can do some targeted science...

A simple example is DNA sequencers. DNA is made up of A,C,T,G base pairs. Tag each molecule with blue, green, red, or yellow, and then you can determine the sequence of any DNA molecule based upon the color pattern. Link GFP to a drug that targets cancer cells, and then inject drug into biopsy matter. If drug lights up in cancerous cells, but not normal cells, bingo. The drug might or might not work, but at least you know the drug is targeting the bad cells and not the good cells. The applications are limitless.

The Nobel Prize and Basic Research So maybe my talk on ACCCT wasn't earth shattering, but compared to Mr. Yang and the others after me, it made good sense why GFP's structure was a huge deal. BTW, the "discovery" by Mr. Yang at Rice University in 1996 probably generates that university tons in royalty streams from all the chemistry kits/tools that license the technology for use.

This is a classic example of why basic research is so critical, and maybe why pharma has lost its way. Seriously, a green glowing jellyfish might someday lead to a cure for cancer. Think about that, that's awesome, and certainly worth the Nobel Prize.

The Presidential Debate - "Who won..."

2008-10-08T08:54:00.002-04:00

The question keeps being asked, "Who won? Who won?" I watched the debate, and I continue to be thoroughly underwhelmed by both candidates. If nothing else, rather than answer the silly question that all the news channels ask, think about this. Nothing was said. Absolutely nothing, and neither strikes me as presidential. Rather than ask who won, I think what has become painfully clear is who lost. It's us; we all lose.

Maybe we are on the precipice of becoming a third world country, if not there already. As the rest of the world's income rises relative to ours going forward, who knows? Maybe innovation will arise out of those countries we used to look down upon, and maybe, if we are lucky, we'll be the low cost labor pool for the world. We better figure some things out, and stop promising entitlement programs that are bankrupting this country. If the last 8 years blew so bad, fine, but I still don't think that a symbol of change equates to a leader of change. Especially from someone we have never heard of prior to now.

In recent times, maybe that's all a president really is, a promise of change if things are bad, and a promise of status quo if things are good. But ask yourself this, where are the WMDs? There's lots of good young people making the ultimate sacrifice so we can borrow beyond our means, and no one seems to remember Colin Powell's speech to the UN General Assembly. No matter what affiliation you profess to be, you have to ask whether we are really ever told anything. As I watch this slow moving train wreck unfold, I have the distinct feeling that the rest of the world is laughing at us. I don't have the answers, but the debate left me feeling very sad about the leadership vacuum that we are about to enter into.

Melamine and China's Contaminated Milk

2008-10-07T12:58:00.004-04:00

Recently, the molecule "melamine" has been in the news. It seems that babies in China are becoming sick because of this chemical, and it has been suggested that the milk in China has been deliberately tainted with the chemical. So the obvious question is why? What is the incentive to put melamine in the milk?

The best theory I've read is that the producers are trying to water down the milk. Milk has protein in it, and if you water the milk down, you dilute the protein content, thus raising the risk that the milk doesn't pass QC. Protein is made up of a carbon-nitrogen backbone, and as you can see from the structure of melamine, it has a lot of nitrogen. So if you supplement watered-down milk with melamine, QC issues are potentially solved.

If true, it's a classic example of motives gone awry. Maybe there isn't enough milk, out there in China, and maybe they do have the best intentions, but the solution to the problem seems to have created a bigger problem in that its toxic. It's the law of unintended consequences at work, and it's pretty ugly when it involves babies.

Duane and Tracy's Wedding

2008-10-06T21:21:00.006-04:00

This weekend, Duane and Tracy tied the knot. The Lent's were married at approximately 6:00 PM this past Saturday at Penn Oaks Country Club. It was a beautiful ceremony, and the bride and groom looked stunning, as they say.

As I get older, I hate to say that it is events like these that make me realize how fast time flies, and how difficult it often seems to get together with lifetime friends. But this weekend reminded me that no matter how much time flies, true friends are always true.

Duane asked me to speak at their wedding, and I was very honored. I shared two stories about why Duane's friendship has been important to me over the 10 years I've known him. See, I had caddied for Duane for both of his Player Ability Tests (P.A.T.s) and on the first shot of his first PAT at Upper Perk, he snubbed his tee shot. This would have been equivalent to you or I riding a bike our whole life, and then one day we get on the bike, peddle once, and fall over. Duane has always killed his driver, so it was shocking. I remember looking over to see if he was about to erupt. But I think we just smiled and then laughed, and I have always admired Duane for not taking himself to seriously. A good quality to have, an even better quality to have when married.

My second great story was Duane's second PAT, at Moccasin Run, the one he passed. I've caddied a lot of PATs, and in every round, there comes a moment that tests you. For Duane, it was #5, a driveable par 4 that is lined by the road down the left hand side. Duane tags his tee shot, and it heads dead left, and all we hear is a bang. The ball hit a telephone pole and we're not really sure if it stayed in. So we walk up to the ball and finally locate it, not really knowing if it's O.B. (Out of Bounds) but there it is in a nasty lie in the rough, in play. By now the ranger is watching our group, and everyone is waiting for Duane, and you can feel the tension. All Duane does is stick his approach to within 2 feet and drains it for bird. It was restaurant quality, seriously good stuff. But what it reminded me of was that I truly believe Duane looked at his tee shot like "thank god the pole was there to keep it in" rather than "this sucks." Golf, like life, is a state of mind. Lots of us say "don't quit", but that day I got to witness a friend actually do just that. I've always admired that quality about Duane, and as I said that night, "life will always throw you crap. But I've never worried about Duane. He can handle it."

So my final thoughts that I shared that night during the walk down memory lane was that after Duane passed his PAT, I thought I'd feel relief as his caddy. But in fact, what I remember feeling was true happiness for him, because I knew how hard he had worked to get to that point in his life. There's really nothing better than seeing the people you care about experience true joy and success. And that's exactly how I felt watching he and Tracy get married Saturday night.

Congrats again Duane and Tracy!!

The Three Amigos -- A lot of golf between these three

Erin and I, before the Scotch and Sodas (me of course...)

Apparently Dancing for no one ut my laughing wife...What a Fun Wedding!

Market Meltdown -- Dow in a Freefall

2008-10-06T14:54:00.007-04:00

Fear has complete control of the market. You had heard it here first, but as I like to tell Erin, "nobody listens to me."

You know, the Phillies are playing the L.A. Dodgers for the Division Title. Since the Cubs didn't get through, you had to know that the universe would counteract this with a destabilizing force....Well, rather than a small planet exploding somewhere, it was the market.

Link to Prior Post Titled "Has the Market Reached the Bottom?"

Probabilities for Baseball Playoffs

2008-10-02T22:58:00.003-04:00

Here are the probabilities for each team to win their respective playoff series...I found it on a site called "coolstandings" which ESPN cited on their website... Link to CoolStandings Website with Playoff Probabilities Current "Smart" Overall Probabilities
Team	Divisional	Championship	Grand Finale
Boston	74.8%	40.7%	23.0%
Philadelphia	73.2%	38.2%	18.5%
Tampa Bay	59.9%	29.7%	15.7%
LADodgers	63.2%	29.6%	12.8%
ChiCubs	36.8%	20.7%	11.1%
ChiSox	40.1%	17.3%	8.2%
LAAngels	25.2%	12.3%	5.7%
Milwaukee	26.8%	11.5%	4.9%

Joe Pa and Penn State Football

2008-10-02T22:46:00.004-04:00

Let me preface this post by saying that I am not part of the PSU cult. But having met my wife at Happy Valley, I kind of get to enjoy the best of both worlds. I get to make fun of the people who bleed blue and white, and yet still root as a casual fan that got his business school degree from a school that has a legend for a football coach.

So I had to post a recent commercial of Joe Paterno that is running on the BigTen network. The posted version is the longer version, but the funny part is at the end when Joe Paterno gives his recruting pitch to a prospective recruit.

This time last year, folks were calling for Joe Pa to retire, and someday he will. But you gotta love his Lions ranked at #6. Never bet against a legend.

Current Bailout, and why it's bad...

2008-09-30T08:41:00.008-04:00

Please read the link to John Hussman's post about the recent "failed" legislation that did not pass in the House. It's a simple as this, really...please read the link below.

The bailout will NOT prevent the recession. It's an election year, which prevents the general public from getting real information. If you want to rise above the masses and understand the bailout in its original form, click the links below. The package puts the taxpayers on the hook, and absolutely encourages future "irresponsible behavior". If you don't believe me, or Dr. Hussman, there's a link to lots of economists that signed a petition against the bailout.

The proposal will not solve anything. Taxpayers should not be on the hook to bail out debt holders in a company's capital structure. From a relative perspective, our generation has lived on credit, and now free markets are telling us we can't live like this going forward. If you can't afford a house, you shouldn't be allowed to buy one. It's that simple. Local banks took regional risk by originating loans that were bogus, and took this regional, localized risk and transformed it into a systemic risk. We are all now caught in the downdraft; price discovery of distressed assets is painful, disruptive but necessary. It's like an alcoholic going through detox.

Link to John Hussman's Post

Link to Economists Petition Against Bailout Presented in House

M.A.D. and The Man who Prevented WW3

2008-09-27T21:54:00.004-04:00

Here is a link to an article printed in Time magazine about a man that apparently had the "rocks" to stand up to group think and say "maybe we aren't being attacked by the U.S." If you are under the age of 30, you may not remember M.A.D. but this man made sure we never had to test the theory out.

The sad part about this story, is the guy did the right thing, and all he did was go pay for it. Typical tragic flawed protagonist, seeking justice in an unjust world.

Have a read, it's a good reminder that doing the right thing isn't always easy. I'm glad he made the right decision, since it allowed me to meet the love of my life and allow our daughter to be born.

Link to Stanislav Petrov here

The Ryder Cup 2008 is Here

2008-09-18T17:02:00.003-04:00

The Ryder Cup is here...this year it's at Valhalla. Hopefully the American team can put up a fight, and I think Zinger's strategy is a good one. Let's face it, since the 1999 win at Brookline, it's been a European drubbing, so maybe hungry rookies can handle the pressure of a tournament that stresses team formats. The best is alternate shot, where you and your teammate have to hit alternate shots. It's a great format.

Let's go USA...and for heaven's sake, somebody shut Sergio down. 15 of 20 possible points in 4 Cups is insane.

Repost of Leverage Related Entries

2008-09-18T06:24:00.007-04:00

Below is the link to the posts I've previously entered related to subprime and the credit bubbles. They are timely, and getting lots of hits these days.

Morgan Stanley looks like they will not make it by end of weekend.

Posts Related to Housing, Banking, and the Credit Bubbles

AIG is the latest headline in the news, here is a link that explains the part of AIG's business that really got them into this mess, which was Credit Default Swaps (CDS) that AIG wrote for securities related to the structured finance products (collateralized debt obligations, etc.) that Wall Street created and traded. It's written by a personal friend and he's wicked smart, but does a great job of assessing the true risk of this "insurance" on these products. It's insurance, plain and simple that AIG wrote, and the worst case scenario has played out. The expected value of the "losses" that AIG thought could never occur, as remote as they seemed at the time, have come true. Their model is broken.

Also, below I've posted some links to the smart money, that actually have been calling the markets up to this point. It's in your best interest to check out, but they are highly technical.

John Hussman

Safe Haven Capital Preservation

Nouriel Roubini -- Go to his RGE webpage

The Float

GMO

Epoch Investments

Team Pootie comes Roaring Back in Week 2

2008-09-17T21:18:00.007-04:00

Team Pootie was down 116.5 to 57 going into Monday night's epic game between the Iggles and Dallas. I had D-Mac, Marion Barber and TO, and needed 59 points to win my game. I was 0-1 already, and this was not looking good, needing 20 points from each player.

Fred Taylor had screwed me again, Vikings D had let Peyton back into the game after a great 1st half of defense.

Team Pootie pulled it out. It was a confusing game to watch, but fun, since every possesion meant something to my fantasy football league game. D-Mac looks healthy again, and actually should have had two touchdowns ala Reggie Brown and DeSean Jackson. I hope Dawkins took care of that situation in the locker room this week. But if the exchange gets done between Westbrook and D-Mac, we send Tony, TO and Jerry friggin Jones home and we're the favorites.

Week 3 should be a close one. Playing the 0-2 guy in the division, so he's due, and I put Sheffler on the team and picked up Seattle D this week against the Rams.

Telomerase Enzyme and Aging

2008-09-16T14:11:00.004-04:00

The enzyme I used to study in grad school is in the news...I blogged about it here. It's a good read, but as I recall, the enzyme is potentially multi-meric, so turning on the enzyme might take a multi-step approach.

Would you really want to live to 200?

Fed Might Cut Rates? -- Fed Funds Futures Now Price in Rate Cut

2008-09-16T09:01:00.007-04:00

The two curves below show the implied Fed Funds rate from the futures market from June 18th and Sept. 15. Stunning. The rate is now at 2.00%, but with the pressure that financials have put on the system, most hope that they stay pat, but another 25 basis point cut is being priced in with about 32% chance today, and an 88% chance of 25 basis point cut in November. Rick Santelli on Friday actually noted that from the trading floor in Chicago, traders had already begun to price the change in sentiment in as he noticed a cut was now being implied...and the VIX volatility index ( the fear index) broke through 30 again after this weekend's events.
Unbelievable stuff. But when two Wall Street icons go down, it makes sense why sentiment has changed. Most knew Lehman was going to fall due to the amount of leverage they had and the amount of level 3 assets this leverage represented, but since Merrill effectively got taken out, the domino theory was now in play. Back in the Cold War, the USSR and US fought small "theater wars" in S.E. Asia, Afghanistan, etc. US foreign policy believed it was necessary to fight Russia because of what was then thought of as the Domino theory. The Fed is now playing the same part in the current financial crisis.

Net net, Bear Stearns was "supposed" to be the only one, and the Fed's actions, vis-a-vis JP Morgan, was supposed to be the end of the credit crisis. Guess again. Whether it's the space shuttle, or financial systems, when complicated, well organized and interconnected systems fail, they fail catastrophically.

Dogtown -- Redemption

2008-09-12T22:54:00.006-04:00

National Geographic has a special on TV that documents the sanctuary that took in the pit bulls from Michael Vick. The sanctuary (and name of the show) is called Dogtown, and it provides an illustration of how these dogs were rehabilitated and resocialized. I watched it recently, and it is a truly heartwarming story about how animals are no different than humans in that they can rise above tremendous suffering. If I were rich, I'd probably be doing something like this. I blogged about Vick's dogs before here.

If you have a chance, check the show out. I promise it will warm your heart. Thank god these dogs found peace. Their rehabilitation makes the dogs seem more humane than some of the human sh*t out there.

Official Link to Show

Official Link to Sanctuary on Show

Lehman Brothers

2008-09-12T22:43:00.004-04:00

My bet is that the Fed will announce something by 7:00 PM this coming Sunday night re: Lehman and another large bank (possibly 2 or 3) buying the assets of Lehman. Every crisis, the Fed announced their actions on a Sunday night. If not, trading on Lehman's stock will probably be halted Monday morning.

AIG seems to be taking a hit on the issue of their credit default swaps, or CDS, business. But really at the heart of this matter is the FASB rule that states that level 3 assets must be marked to market. In the current environment, marking to market results in marking level 3 assets to virtually zero. If someone is going to step in and buy all of Lehman's Alt-A, level 3 assets, someone has to assure that their assets are worth more than zero. The current accounting rules do not allow for this, so it's a vicious cycle that ultimately looks like the Fed will again need to step in.

Log Me In -- Remote Access to Home Computer from Anywhere

2008-09-12T09:29:00.015-04:00

This is a great, free service that you can use to access your home computer from anywhere. The service is called Log Me In (www.logmein.com) and it's tremendous. Justin told me about while in Seattle, and I now use it to check on our dog since I have a webcam hooked up to a computer at home. It's just cause I miss her during the day, and like to check in and make sure she's ok.

The simple idea is much like Window's NetMeeting, where you give control to a remote user who then can troubleshoot your computer, etc. If you want to use the free service, you go to the site from a computer at home you want to access, and create an account with Log Me In. Then you enroll the computer, and you're done. Test it out by going to another computer and you can log in much like you would when you access the computer as if you were sitting right there. Be aware though, not all corporate firewalls let you do this, but I've tested from hotels, etc. and it works. Make sure you click on the "free service," as they do auto-enroll you in fee service after 30 days. But once you sign up, just change the subscription/service level from the dashboard and you will never be charged. I've never been. I used to use Orb, which is also good, but this is much more multi-functional, in case I need to access files from home, etc.

Here's a screenshot of Katie cakes looking over our couch. We've learned that her routine is to sleep on our couch most of the day, but she begins each day flipping over our rug and throwing a pillow onto the floor. It's kind of funny to watch. (Click to enlarge)

"Our Site" -- Click and Viewing Behavior

2008-09-12T09:09:00.008-04:00

Here is a chart that shows the number of visitors that hit the site since February this year. The reason I chose Feb is because statcounter started tracking the site as a new project in Feb '08 since I had hit my limit of 500 as a free service (www.statcounter.com)

June's traffic really picked up because I realized how to drive traffic to the website. However, I think that the blue area is the most meaningful. Over time, I have been able to drive new, unique visitors, which is everything. If you want to know the secret, email me, as it's still a work in progress, and still too early to tell. But if you are thinking about monetizing your website, it's an idea worth thinking about.

If you drill into this data above, you will see some patterns of behavior by the people who click on the site. What the data shows is that the traffic is non-existent on weekends, then builds slowly from Monday to Wednesday, then tapers again.

Two things come to mind:

1. Either people are bored as the week starts and find the site and return...

2. I blog in bursts, specifically during weekends, and post all new stuff on Sunday night. This drives traffic.

I know the motives of my behavior well, and Sunday night is when all of my pent up creativity from things I think about get "written". What I'd like to do is drive traffic with less "seasonality" if you will, so that demand is more constant. But before you can address and change a market, you have to be able to understand the behavior of it's participants. I'm the supplier, I want to understand my corresponding demanders.

It'll be interesting to see if folks start to subscribe to the Feed Burner update service or if the StumbleUpon button drives traffic higher...we'll see.

Lehman In Trouble

2008-09-12T08:59:00.005-04:00

Here is the 1-year chart for Lehman (LEH)

Here is the 1-year chart for Lehman vs. Washington Mutual (WM) and Merrill (MER).

I blogged about this earlier. Looks like it's a race against time. Lehman is the overlevered borrower whose house price is falling through the floor. It's the negative equity story, and unless they find a buyer for this distressed "asset", it doesn't look good. Maybe the gov't will bail these folks out too. I know some really good people over at Lehman, so this one has been tough to watch play out. It sucks that their management has mortally wounded the company. Agency issues and greed.

StumbleUpon -- A Marketing Pitch

2008-09-09T21:29:00.004-04:00

One of the best ideas...highly recommended

www.stumbleupon.com

Tough Week for Team Pootie

2008-09-09T20:24:00.005-04:00

It was a tough week for Team Pootie. Put up 103 and lost to the high points winner of the week. D-Mac threw 3 touchdowns for the team, and Marion Barber and TO got us 40 points. Dogs of the week, Vikings Defense almost laid an egg, Aaron Rodgers, bite me.

Being a fantasy football manager is a lot like being a portfolio/asset manager. It's a long season, so I'm managing for the long run, but week to week is tough. You can think of each "position" (QB, RB, WR, etc.) as an asset class, and I'm looking for uncorrelated assets that have high returns and low volatility to generate consistent, high points through diversification across the entire portfolio. Specifically, in the short run, I'm looking to "diversify" my risk concentrated with the Dallas Cowboys, and I'd like to gain more exposure to a better Defense. Simply put, Pootie Tang needs to man up and get some players.

Hadron Collidor Turned on This Wednesday

2008-09-07T22:45:00.009-04:00

The collider goes live this Wednesday, the 10th....If you google "Hadron Collider", you will get a ton of sites that walk through different aspects of the collider. However, my favorite is the article that claims that scientists that have been working on this project are getting death threats. If you scroll down, there is a comment by one of the readers to the article that states,

"The only substance behind these threats is that some religious nut went full retard, never go full retard."

Full retard, well put. I tried to blog about this before....here.

Here are some other great sites, including CERN's Operational Site, below:

CERN's Site

Interactive Guide on Hadron Collider

Educational Site for the Religious Freaks on Particle Physics

Link to Brian Greene's book The Elegant Universe

PBS Special on Brian Greene's Book

Our Trip to Seattle

2008-09-05T00:22:00.011-04:00

Our Trip to Seattle Erin and I just got back from a mini vacation in Seattle. We went out to visit the Leigh’s, our friends from b-school who work at Amazon, who just had their first, baby Frances Laura. It was a great time, and we spent time doing all the usual touristy stuff. Saturday, we arrived at Sea-Tac and went to Qwest Field to watch Washington State play Oklahoma State. Justin went to undergrad at Wazzu, and I did my “Master’s” work there, and according to the math, we were both there at the same time for one year. Qwest Field is a neat stadium, and it’s pretty loud…Saturday night we had drinks and pizza in Columbia Hill. Justin and I got to play some golf at Trilogy, and I am sad to report that playing on tired legs, I could not bring my dollars back to their rightful home. But a $2 Nassau is a $2 Nassau, and Justin netted me to death throughout the round.

The Vibe As tourists, I would offer that downtown Seattle has an interesting vibe, and could not be more different from NYC, or dirty jersey, for that matter. It’s hard to describe, but for lack of a better term, the vibe is a nice mix of “alternative, polite, and slower pace.” While we didn’t do the high profile stuff, like the Space Needle, or the Museum of Flight, we did go to the aquarium and spent some time at Pike’s Place, which is incredibly cool and embodies better the vibe of Seattle. I have posted some pictures below, and a link to my Webshots that shows more here…

Pike's Place Market Several things were super cool; we went to the original Starbucks”, walked around all the Farmer’s markets, and finally stopped to watch the famous Pike’s Place Fish Company, where the business owners throw large fish across to each other. My mom told me that there are corporate, team-building programs based upon this store and these workers. The rationale is that these workers have created a fun, unique and productive workplace in a job that most would find boring and gross. The proof is in the crowds that were lined up around these workers, waiting for someone to order a fish. I posted the video I took on my camera of these guys working...it's up above.

Baby Frances Laura Hanging out with the Leighs was fun, and seeing Seattle and the surrounding areas was fun. Our hosts could not have been more gracious, and it was weird to see folks we had spent so much time with in b-school on their home turf (I think I mentioned the word “anachronism” on hole #5 to JL)…We got to see baby Frances; she’s adorable and pretty responsive at 2 months. Mom and dad are running 5Ks and half marathons 2 months after the birth, which is inspirational if nothing else…All I know is that I’m pretty sure I got her to smile, and all it took was some funny noises. What a cutie, maybe next time we’ll introduce her to Allison.

An Interesting Side Note Finally, it bears mentioning that we stayed downtown at the Hyatt right near Pike’s Place. When we arrived on Saturday after the game to check in, there were throngs of people across the street at the Convention Center, and all looked “familiar” in a subconscious way. Our hotel was also overrun with many of these people, who were wearing various t-shirts; one of the patrons had on a black t-shirt with 3 Pac-man ghosts, another was wearing a t-shirt with Zelda on it. So, to the dismay of my wife, I asked the 20-35 year old male who we rode the elevator up with, “what’s going on across the street?” Turns out, there was a electronic gamer conference going on, and most were staying in our hotel.

Well, I admit, I’ve played my share of video games. Most recently, one of my more shameful gamer moments was getting sucked into the hype of Halo 2 in 2005. I was in State College, PA at the time and had reserved my advanced copy, which I could pick up at 12:00AM on the day of the product launch. So I drove to Nittany Mall at 12AM in the morning, thinking I’d just run in and run back out with my game. Well, upon arriving, I waited in a long line in the mall for 2 ½ hours with some of the greatest representation that central Pennsylvania has to offer (Central PA is tremendous, but perhaps this is not my moment to throw stones at glass houses…) When I got back to my apartment, I played the game till 7:00AM, and then went to my Investments class that same morning. Having taken no shower and not brushed my teeth, my classmate Hristo looked at me and asked “late night at Café 210?” and I explained “nope, I waited in line last night for Halo 2 and played the game up till about an hour ago.” Hristo replied, “dude, when else can you take a break from the real world and do something like that?” Well said Hristo, and absolutely true.

The point of my story is that I needed to illustrate my “motive” for snapping the picture below. If you’ve ever watched the show G4 on cable, then you know who the dude is in the picture below. If you don’t, well then, maybe you’ve never played video games or waited in line for Halo.

Adam and Me, outside the hotel in Seattle, super cool about a dumb fan...

Video of Adam on PAX2008 Show in Seattle

Seattle is a beautiful, great town, I highly recommend anyone check it out. Thanks again to the Leighs!!!

by jkweil

Flying on a Plane and the Theory of Relativity

2008-09-04T20:43:00.009-04:00

Being a commuter, I spend a lot of time on buses and trains, and while traveling back and forth from Seattle recently, I realized that the captive time makes my mind race. Well at one point, I had to go to the bathroom, and while standing in line, I got to thinking about the theory of relativity.

Most people know who “discovered” the theory of relativity. But few can explain it. I'm quite sure I would have asked Einstein "what does that mean" when he made the absolute statements about relativity, and I'm sure he would have answered and explained with examples and details. As a digression, Erin will tell you that the statement I make most when I give someone the opportunity to explain absolute statements* is “what does that mean?” or “please give me an example.” It’s a simple statement that you can follow up anyone’s prior statement, and it’s most useful when someone flat out says something you either don’t agree with, want to challenge the validity or conviction of their belief, or just probe to make sure they even know what they are talking about. You’d be surprised how many people try to tell you how you should think. It’s on you to challenge them and ask them “ok, I hear you, but what does that mean??” I find the statement indispensable, and there are lots of other folks eligible for this question. Erin and I always laugh at some of the responses we hear when we ask that simple question.

So what does the theory of relativity mean? Well, relativity was born out of Einstein’s constant struggle to reconcile the speed of light and the measurement of time. I remember the first time I ever read about the theory in Physics in undergrad, and two things stick out: If nothing else, the theory of relativity is profound and should make your head spin, and you realize how far ahead of his time Einstein was as an intellectual. Think of relativity this way, as I am sitting next to Erin on the plane, she and I are not moving relative to one another. However, we are in a plane that is moving at a cruising speed of 450 mph at 30,000 feet. Again, my speed relative to the plane is zero, I am sitting still. But, relative to the ground, I am moving 450 m.p.h. That’s awesome, and guess what?? If I froze the plane in the air, then relative to the plane, the ground is moving 450 miles per hour. Think about that.

Here’s where it gets crazy. If you hold speed constant, the farther away from the ground you get, time begins to slow down. There is nothing that you and I know of that moves fast enough to make this difference noticeable. But if you could move at or near the speed of light, time starts to standstill. It’s a hard thing to conceptualize, but it’s the fundamental basis for time travel, and was instrumental in reconciling the 4th dimension, which is space-time. If you think this is from a science fiction movie, guess again. Global Positioning Satellite units that you can buy for your car sometimes make the marketing claim that they correct for this time lag given that the satellites are moving much faster relative to your position so that you don't have errors in your position magnified...Einstein was ridiculous…think about it. There were no computers back then, just great minds.

*For example, if someone makes an absolute statement like "I think my coworker talks about me?" you should ask simply "What does that mean?" If you can make the person give you an example, or further clarify, 9 times out of 10, if the statement is true, the person can explain what they meant and there is usually a good basis for their belief. If they can't explain their statement or back up with evidence, well, then you know the person just says things with little evidence to back up their beliefs.

RNC -- Will McCain Get a Bounce?? -- UPDATED

2008-09-04T20:05:00.005-04:00

McCain is set to accept his party's nomination tonight. InTrade shows as of 8:00PM that the futures market for the presidential election pegs OB's chances at 59.8%, and McCain's at 39.6%. We will see...

UPDATED
Looks like the Palin bounce is in full effect. This is a tremendous election year, like watching two midgets argue over who is taller. The public will choose between which choice is less worse. Whoever wins, either candidate is screwed and the agency issue will rear its ugly head once fame and power are achieved by leadership midget 1 or 2. The question we all find ourselves asking at the end of the day is which candidate potentially screws us less? Think about it.

Check this tomorrow to see if the bounce moves McCain higher than 40%...

My Day Inside the Ropes with KJ Choi ...

2008-08-29T01:00:00.009-04:00

Last Wednesday, I was fortunate enough to have the opportunity to play golf in the Barclays Invitational Pro-Am. It was the most amazing experience I've ever had. Please indulge me as I relive the experience...

When I received the invitation, I sent Barclays (BGI) my handicap. BGI sent me my info packet that listed directions to the parking lot. My tee time was 7:30AM. At the time, I had no idea who I'd be playing with, but the night before, I checked the tournament website to get a feel for the course. The link is here, and after looking through, I was pretty nervous.

Time to Head Out So I get up at 4:30AM, shower, and load the car up with my sticks and my shoes. I am on the road by 5:45AM and reach Ridgewood by 6:45AM. The attendant in the lot takes my bag and I ride in to the course on a shuttle with the other "lucky amateur bastards". We get to the course, and I have to register. The nice woman gives me two things, a pass for all access that marks me as a contestant, and a sheet that shows who I am playing with and what tee I am starting on. I get to play golf with "The Chairman" -- K.J. Choi. K.J. is the 15th ranked player in the world. Links to K.J. are here, here and here.

Pass for tournament with KJ's Autograph (click to enlarge)

Sheet with Pro Pairings and Starting Tee (click to enlarge)

Texting my Buddy Jimmy I sit at the locker they give me in the clubhouse, and I can barely keep my head on straight. The only thing I could think to do is text my buddy Jimmy two simple letters "KJ". I put the cell phone away and head out to look for my bag and the range. Once I find them, I grab a wedge, a 7 iron and my driver and head down to the range. The first person I see hitting balls? Freddy Couples. Next to him? Sergio. It's basically insane. I go to the tent to get my bag of balls, and they have every ball you could want to hit. I grab the bags marked Titleist because I don't hit "Bridgestones", and hit a few, then head back to the cart when they announce the time as 7:25 AM. Oh, on my way back, Phil Mickleson is being interviewed in a chair by the range. That was cool.

So our team heads down to the 17th tee box, still no sign of K.J. though. We're standing on the tee with Stuart Appleby's group, and he's ribbing us about K.J. being late. There's about 14 people standing around including all of our caddies. Honestly, I'm so nervous, I don't really remember what he said. But they tee off and K.J. and his caddie show up and Appleby points to his watch..K.J. just starts laughing.

The Chairman Arrives K.J. is extremely nice and introduces himself. His caddie, Andy, is a Scotsman and he's a freakin' riot. For example, he hands us "pin sheets" and states "in case your firing right at them." We stand on the 17th, and it's time to go. The 17th is a dogleg left, so K.J. tee's off from the pro tees. He nuts the ball with effortless power, which is truly what you realize with these guys. The ball turns around the corner and disappears. I say "good ball KJ" and walk up 20 yards to our tees, the fourth set.

First Tee Jitters I'll save you the suspense... I had hit 5 good drivers on the range, so I felt comfortable on the tee, all things considered. I remember picking out my spot in the distance, lining up, and then trying to stay relaxed and slow. I remember seeing the ball, hearing the ball, and KJ and the group saying, "great ball." We teed off into the sunrise, so I never saw it. We go up, and I outdrove KJ given that I was up 20 yards, and really tried to keep it together because I didn't want to be that dude that tried to show up the pro. But I did outdrive him, and it meant nothing other than my teammates took notice and so did the kid and his dad standing outside the ropes watching our group. You can't imagine how awesome it is to pipe a drive, pick up your tee, and there are people clapping and a pro saying "great ball". Oh, KJ made birdie on 17, I made bogey. Hitting a big drive is like getting a girl's number. You still have to make the call, so all that matters is the shot you hit from there.

My Random Thouhgts I won't go through every hole, because those who know me know I remember everything due to my photographic memory and really could. But here are some of my random thoughts about the experience:

KJ Choi could not have been cooler. He really kept us relaxed, it was hard to believe he was the same intense guy you see winning on TV at tournaments.
I've always imagined what it's like being inside the ropes. And you know what? It's exactly how I pictured it. Being inside the ropes beats standing outside the ropes any day.
I hit 10 fairways that day, and it was a blast having people watch you tee off.
TV doesn't do any justice to what these guys do. Their swings are beautiful, and the shots they hit from the places they do are unbelievable. And putting on PGA greens are heaven.
I made 2 pars for birdies in our team's effort.
KJ and his caddie were working on strategy the whole round, talking about what clubs to hit on each hole, and looking at the greens since this was the first time many had played at Ridgewood CC.
KJ signed about 50 autographs during our 5 hour round. The most inspiring moment was when KJ signed the hat for a girl who walked with two crutches because of a birth disorder. KJ really took time to show he was appreciative that she wanted his autograph. Watching her reaction after he signed her hat and headed toward his ball made me realize how much of an impact we all have on others, no matter what our status in life.
Funniest moment of round (for me personally): Walking from 13 green to 14 tee box, KJ was back behind us and signing more autographs. As I come up over the hill towards the tee box, some little kid looks at me and says "KJ, can you sign my hat?" His dad quickly looks at me and says "That's not KJ." It was pretty funny. I quickly realized that while I was inside the ropes, this kid's father reminded me my presence there was temporary.
On my 3rd hole (#1), I rolled my ball in for par, and stood off to the side and waited for the others to putt out. My eyes got watery because I realized how far I had come in my life to reach that point inside the ropes, and it has a very humbling moment. Thanks Jim, Duane and Willy for giving me the skills to hang with KJ and play one shot at a time.
Saying "good putt" and "nice drive" to KJ and having him look back and say "thanks" never got old the whole round. Thinking about KJ saying "good drive" after I hit my drives off the tee still gives me chills. I can still hear he and Andy.

I could go on and on, but I was on a high for three days. Below is the picture of our team and a signed "flag" by KJ. His agent and he also sent a card that I received this week saying thank you again, it was just classy. When the round was over, I took off my visor, shook his hand and thanked him again for making the day so much fun. I won't ever forget the experience. KJ was a true gentlemen.

Plaque of Our Team (-10 under, tied for 4th)

The Epilogue BGI invited me to play two days later at Liberty National. Liberty National is where the Barclays will be held next year, and the thought right now is that the Barclays will rotate between Ridgewood, Liberty National, and Westchester Country Club. Apparently, Bob Diamond, the president of Barclays, is a member there. Here is a link to Liberty National..here and here.

Liberty National I got to Liberty and met up with my contact and met Bob Diamond in the locker room. Bob was playing in the group ahead of us, and Tim Finchem, the PGA Commissioner was also in his group. (In the picture I took below, you can see Commisioner Finchem in the grey slacks with the black shirt...) There are just some beautiful views of the Manhattan skyline from the course. Liberty that day played much tougher than Ridgewood, no disrespect. There's fescue all around to look at off the tee, and when the wind gets going, it can wear you down. The greens are really crazy too. Should be a great venue next year...!

View from the 16th Tee Box...lots to look at

Finally, a word about the Barclays Tournament
Erin and I went to the Barclays on Saturday. We hung out at the hospitality pavilion, and I introduced Erin to Bob Diamond while there. We followed KJ from the 16th hole on in since he teed off at 9:40 AM. He was -3 under for the day and making a move, and had birdie chances on 16 and 17. I said hi to Andy and we followed their group in. Afterwards, we headed down to the driving range to watch KJ work out. I spoke with his friend who recognized me from Wednesday and introduced Erin to Andy as well. We hung out along the 17th fairway since that was where I started our Pro-Am round and watched VJ, Lumpy, Nick Watney, Sergio, and Phil hit their approaches into 17 green. It was simply awesome being inside the ropes. Kudos to Barclays, what a fantastic week. KJ, if you are reading this, you have a fan for life, ask Erin. She was laughing watching me run around the course following my pro.

Thanks for letting me share this experience. I know it was a long post, but for a once in a lifetime experience, I could've written a book.

KJ's Swing on CBS's Swingvision Slow-Motion Camera

Morton Wins Against the Marlins

2008-08-28T23:24:00.002-04:00

Charlie went 6 innings against the Marlins and got the win. The young rookie threw 125 pitches scattering 4 hits and giving up just 2 earned runs. It was a good win, great outing CM.

Presidential Predictions on Univ. of Iowa Futures Market

2008-08-27T06:36:00.005-04:00

Courtesy of Iowa's Futures Market Website -- See Link

Here's another futures market where market participants can try and predict the outcome of the Presidential Election this fall. Red line is for the elephants, blue line is for the "donkeys". The time horizon is from 2006 to present (Aug. 2008)

It seems that lately, the red line is trending higher, and the blue line is trending lower, consistent with the futures prediction on Intrade's market (www.intrade.com)

Link to Presidential Market at University of Iowa

Biochemical Pathways...

2008-08-26T00:07:00.004-04:00

Here is a link to a clickable, interactive chart that shows all of the body's biochemical processes or metabolic processes. The charts give you an appreciation of what medical science is trying to accomplish when targeting such diseases as Alzheimer's, cancer, etc. The chart shows that nature is both elegant and complex, and our search to find the cures for things that go wrong in nature is a humble, yet noble one.

Link to Metabolic Processes Chart

Rent vs Buy

2008-08-25T22:09:00.002-04:00

Here is a link to a great calculator that determines which is better to do, rent vs. buy. The website allows you to input various values for home price, etc. and shows you how long you have to stay to "breakeven" should you decide to buy.

If nothing else, this shows you graphically another reason why home price appreciation is so important given the uncertainty of how long you live somewhere. Some people never leave the area they grew up in, so if you are one of them, don't worry, plunk down your money and buy. It won't matter, the chart says it all.

Link to "Rent vs. Buy" Calculator

A Very Cool Site -- S&P500 Market "Heatmap"

2008-08-25T21:52:00.004-04:00

Here is a link to a website that publishes a daily heatmap for the S&P500. The map uses color to show which companies are up or down, and the size of the box for each company represents the market capitalization of each company. The map is organized by sectors and subsectors.

The website is called "www.finviz.com" Check it out.

Ass of the Week -- "The Promise of Alternative Energy"

2008-08-21T06:20:00.009-04:00

There are many candidates for this week's award, probably most notably Brett Farve (I know, I am still a fan, but I think the saga that played out certainly detracts from some of his reputation...More on this later.) There's also Bob Costas, doing the Olympics, whom Chris Collingsworth called out early in one telecast after it was implied that Costas hadn't been to any of the events he so eloquently expounds upon night in and night out. CC stated "You should go see these events. They're amazing..." Bob Costas, Chris Behrman, John Madden and Dick Vitale are dinosaurs, and flat out annoying. Costas apparently played baseball with Babe Ruth, Chris Behrman just rhymes every players name, but doesn't have an original thought to say, John Madden sounds drunk up in the booth, and Dick Vitale states the obvious in a high pitched squeal. It's bad. Oh and don't forget Dick Enberg. Jesus, grab a kleenex when that's guys bits start...

But while all are worthy, I would give this week's award to "the dude who wouldn't let go". This dude has no name, but a video of him in action has been all over the news since Tropical Storm "Fay" hit Florida. The video is posted below, and seriously, I couldn't stop laughing the first time I saw it, and it makes me laugh every subsequent time I watch it. Dude, just let go. You can get another friggin' kite/parasail.

The video proves that if this country could instill good energy policies and incentives for wind energy, we could kick our addiction to oil. I'm all for it. Mother Nature is awesome, ask this guy if wind power is real or not.

Fed Funds Futures Predict Rate Hikes in 2009

2008-08-19T13:02:00.009-04:00

How to read this chart*

The futures market for Fed Funds Futures are currently predicting a 36% chance of a +25 basis point rate hike in January 2009. This move would change the current Fed funds rate of 2.00% to 2.25%. The probability of a +25 basis point rate increase goes to 92% in March of 2009. The contracts are here.

This key rate is the Fed's primary tool to balance inflation risks with economic growth. As we all know, the Fed cuts this discount rate when times are "bad" to stimulate spending and investment. And conversely, the Fed raises this rate when there's "too much money" out there in supply, which often leads to inflation. Too much money results in people bidding up prices of things (like oil, food) and as a result, inflation erodes the future earning power of cash flows. Think about it this way; an interest rate (discount rate, etc.) is just the cost or price of money. Money's "price" ebbs and flows just like anything, in response to supply and demand. The Fed can lower this rate to encourage people to borrow money (seek credit), and this money will be put to use in assets that produce a greater return than the cost of the money. That's why the yield curve is so important, and a leading indicator of economic sentiment. The yield curve just shows the "price" of money across different time periods. We'll leave the yield curve for another day.

The reason that the discount rate is watched so much these days is that there is a battle going on in the capital markets. The Fed was raising rates last year due to economic growth that was mostly due to the easy credit available out there. This easy credit was creating inflation in all kinds of assets (think housing and the stock market for the easy examples, but food and oil were the other two.) So to control consumption, the Fed can raise these rates to curb consumption, thus controlling prices. But a funny thing happened. Bear Stearns forced the Fed's hand, and rates had to come down, liquidity (money) had to be injected into the system. Anytime you create an oversupply of something, its price falls. The price of short-term money fell from 5.75% to its current price of 2.00%.

However, the value of the dollar was already so low, that all this did was add more money to the system that encouraged another asset bubble to appear in commodities. Commodities are an inflation hedge, so this was a positive feedback loop. Now the Fed has its current dilemma: Rates at 2.00% were too low to cut any further to "keep the US from going into a recession" since the housing/credit/corporate profit bubbles were popping. However, if the Fed raised rates to fight the inflation that was occurring in food and oil prices, (which it helped sustain due to the extraordinary actions it took to bail the financial system out by lowering rates), then it risked pushing the US into an economic contraction (recession) without prices coming back to earth since the dollar is still so low in value. Stagflation is a situation where prices still climb but economic growth is flat or low. Japan went through this in the 90's.

The Fed will need to raise rates, and the futures market predicts the beginning of this change in sentiment in 2009. Raising rates in response to inflation expectations will have all kinds of implications for US equity markets, namely, market values will fall because the 10-year treasury yield will move higher, discounting all future cash flows to lower values. Some think that once 10-year yields move above 4.5%, the Fed will have to raise rates, no matter what the financial sector is doing.

But if you want to assume away the discounting mechanism of the markets, all you need to know is that the presidential election is in November 2008. After all the promises have been made, it won't matter. The Fed will no longer be working for the politicians, and will do what they were created to do.

* The blue line represents the current "implied" fed funds rate for each month going forward. The y-axis on the right is related to this blue line. Market participants predict, for example, that at the Sept. 2008 Fed Fund meeting, the Fed will leave rates at 2.00%. You can see what the market predicts over the longer time periods.

* The other lines represent the probabilities that the Fed will raise the current 2.00% rate by 25, 50, or 75 basis points. (25 basis points is 0.25%). The pink line shows the probability that the Fed will raise rates the current rate at 2.00% by by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The y-axis on the left matches with these scenarios. In Feb. 2009, the pink line shows that the probability the rate moves 25 basis points to 2.25% is 72%. In March, it goes to 92%. The way you calculate this probability is as follows:

Subtract the implied rate in Feb 2009 (2.18%) from target rate (2.25%) = (2.25-2.18)= 0.07
Divide 0.07 by rate increase (+25 basis points) = 0.07 / 0.25 = 0.28
Subtract 0.28 from 1 = 1 - 0.28 = 0.72
This is the probability that in Feb 2009, the Fed will raise rates from 2.00% to 2.25%...

Morton Goes 7 Innings, Beats Diamondbacks

2008-08-08T01:10:00.004-04:00

Look at that arm angle, head's up and the world is yours...

The kid went 8 complete innings, scattering 5 hits while giving up 1 walk with 4 SO. He gave his Braves a chance to win last night, and they backed him up with runs. Charlie also got his first hit, a double, that was roped out to left field. The swing looked sweet (I'm looking for it on YouTube as I write this), staying back and on top of it. (We won't talk about what happened after, but read the re-cap to hear Bobby's take on it.) Curve ball was devastating tonight, and CM had nice movement on his fastball, and changed speeds nicely throughout the game. The proof is in the ground balls, the double plays, and the broken bats after jamming guys and running things in and away.

Nice job Charlie. As tough as St. Louis probably was, and we felt for you, it looks like it was good for you. Going through the tough times gives you the gut check you need to decide how much you like to do what you're doing, and how bad you want to get better. Most wilt, your last two starts show us you've chosen a different path. All I saw on Fox Sports Network tonight when they came out of commercial was "a kid with a towel on his head, smiling and having fun on the bench." That's what this is about, and it's always up to you.

Keep it going brother. Tomorrow don't matter, and the next batter don't matter. It's just like golf, one shot at a time. The Braves believe in you, and tonight it showed why it's a team game. You are a Major League professional pitcher for the Atlanta Braves.

Great outing and great win Charlie. Welcome to The Show.

Walmart -- A Visual Map

2008-08-07T06:05:00.007-04:00

I've posted an interesting link to a website that creates visual representations of data...It's called Flowing Data (www.flowingdata.com). One visualization was for Walmart, the link is below. The visualization shows the history of Walmart's stores, and plots a point for each place a store opened. From their roots in Arkansas, the Walton's built their business from the bottom up into the low cost provider of all things, mostly consumer staples, but recently into higher margin goods like electronics, etc.

It's a neat visualization, if nothing else. But the map and the history represent what any true entreprenuer sees in their dreams. Starbucks no doubt had the same visions, but recently came to understand that growing too fast can sometimes hurt too, since same store cannibalization can happen when you just grow for the sake of growing. Quality suffers, and the dilution of your brand ultimately occurs, since SBUX set out to sell the experience of Italian coffee shops, but has come to shift its focus on an ungodly product mix (food and trinkets) that customers no longer stay in the store to drink or experience. (A perfect example, they sell gift cards now as a result of the pressure they feel to grow same store sales over and above the trend...classic growth company problem.) Starbucks has also realized that the market can't always support a premium price when competition comes in to drive your returns to the cost of your capital.

It's an age old story, which again, is why innovation is the key to any long-term business success. If you can innovate beyond your competition, you win. It's another way of saying, "if you can stay one step ahead of your competition, you can beat your competition." Gretzky said it best, "Don't go where the puck is. Go where it will be."

Link to Walmart Map

Up Down Website

2008-08-07T05:45:00.001-04:00

If you think you can pick stocks, here's a great way to get noticed. The website is called "Up-Down" and it allows you to pick a virtual portfolio of stocks. You can create portfolios and track on any finance related site (Y!, CBS Marketwatch, etc.) but the key difference here is that the site is a community of users that you can publicly look at their holdings and see what people think. The ultimate difference is that each month, you get "graded" within your peers, and it builds street rep...

I like it, and will create my portfolio shortly.

And lastly, I have to plug Stumble Upon again (www.stumbleupon.com). It's how I come across these sites, and it's tremendous.

Link to Up-Down

Organized Religion

2008-08-06T21:20:00.004-04:00

This makes me laugh...Organized religion cracks me up.

"Morton to Start Against Diamondbacks" 8/7/2008

2008-08-06T14:56:00.006-04:00

The kid had a good start last Saturday versus the Brewers, throwing 7 innings, scattering 4 hits. He unfortunately posted the loss, but his control was back and he was hitting his spots and changing speeds well.

Charlie starts tomorrow night, 9:40 PM versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hopefully the Braves can give him some early run support.

Here we go CM...do what you do.

Link to Press Pass for Game (when available)

Hadron Collidor Ready to Go, "End of the World Near"

2008-08-02T10:00:00.003-04:00

The Hadron collidor is ready to go. As a refresher, the collidor being used to accelerate sub-atomic particles towards each other, and then study the energy released. Here is a link to some pictures to the accelerator, that will supposedly end the world.

Yeah right.

Another good link that documents the arguments...

What might the Hadron Collidor Find?

The Election, Taxes, and Why Corporate Profits Have to Fall

2008-08-01T10:11:00.008-04:00

Economic theory suggests that the long run growth rate in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is around 3%. GDP growth is a proxy for corporate profits. If you agree to this premise, then read on as to why corporate profits have to fall.

GDP can be approximated by the following:

GDP = Corporate Profits = (C – DI) + (Investment) + (G - T) + (E – I)

Consumption - Disposable Income: If term is negative, then consumer is "saving"; if consumer is "consuming more than they have in disposable income, then the term is positive, and this is a positive for corporate profits, i.e. GDP.

Investment: Related to business and private investment, think housing and projects that create shareholder value for corporations. Housing boom drove a lot of the GDP expansion...

Gov’t Spending – Taxes: Gov’t generates revenues to spend on programs through taxation. If this term is positive, then the gov't runs a fiscal deficit; conversely, if negative, the term represents a fiscal surplus.

Exports – Imports: This is the trade balance...we've been running a trade deficit in the recent past, which means we import more than we export from a value perspective. The trade deficit was the only drag on GDP growth in the run-up to the bubble, and now may reverse its effect going forward, but it's still a largely negative effect.

Currently, three out of the four items are net negative, as consumers cannot spend as much, so net, we begin to save our money. Credit is not as available, or is more costly, so again, savings rate goes up and consumption goes down, both bad for corporate profits and GDP (i.e. we won't buy as much stuff...) Investment is contracting because credit is too costly and scarce for consumers and businesses. Housing drove most of this investment during bubble, so investment's effect has to be smaller going forward. The trade balance continues to be unfavorable, and as such, the only lever the government can pull to stimulate the economy is to spend. The government can raise taxes to cover its spending, or it can borrow from other countries to cover it’s spending (think Medicare, Social Security, or infrastructure) but either way, Gov’t Spending – Taxes must be (+), to expand GDP, and this means the gov't will run a larger deficit than currently or raise tax receipts to offset the spending it will incur.

Ultimately, the change in Savings, the change in investment, the change in Budget Deficit, and the change in the trade balance drives the change in GDP, which is a proxy for corporate profits.

Therefore, going forward and to summarize:

1. Savings has to go up, because our relative consumption has gone down.
2. Investment has to go down, since housing industry has slowed (residential investment) and business investment has gone down.
3. Fiscal deficit is higher than it was 4 years ago.
4. Trade balance has gotten less negative, since the dollar has helped over seas profit. However, the trade balance is still negative, which contributes to neg GDP.

The gov't could lower corporate taxes to stimulate investment by industry that eventually translates into jobs and income for its workers making terms 1 and 2 go up. However, my bet, given the rhetoric out there, is that taxes will be raised, and both candidates know it, it's the only direct lever the gov't really has in the equation above. The difference is that the gov't sees itself as jump starting the economy by spending vs. corporations, the gov't just gets the money through tax receipts versus the way corporations get the money via tax breaks. That's why the "windfall profit" tax is getting so much air time, it serves the politician's purpose two-fold with a struggling consumer that believes they do not benefit from corporate tax breaks.

Taxes are a way to transfer wealth, and it can happen along lots of different vectors. If you received a stimulus check, enjoy it. It wasn't free.

Beer Pong Video Game

2008-07-31T13:18:00.004-04:00

OMG, this is hilarious.
Probably the greatest game on the planet, and now, captured as a video game. Apparently Nintendo and the Wii has launched this game, and parents are in an uproar.

I make no representations here, only that I loved this game back in the fraternity.