Saturday, June 21, 2008

Oil Prices and Mideast Unrest

I blogged about this before after having heard Tony Blair talk about why the West might need to go into Iran and take out their nuclear program. If you think oil prices are high now, further unrest in the mideast could accelerate the rise in oil prices.

I've posted the price chart of the futures market that attempts to predict the likelihood that Israel will attack Iran in September 2008. The market opened fairly high (relative to current date) and was probably first trading when comments were made by Iran's president. From an impartial perspective, whatever you think about the conflict in the mideast, you must admit that if another country came out and said the USA should be "wiped off the map" we'd probably do the same as Israel is doing. This development in the Middle East is a pretty serious issue that the next president will need to sort out. I've posted the futures chart that shows the probability for each candidate from Intrade as well down below.

Link to Exercise Run this Weekend