Monday, April 14, 2008

Masters Odds -- Continued

Yeah Tiger, we feel real bad for you...
Trevor Immelman came through for the golfing world and put Tiger's "Grand Slam" plans on hold for another year. For those who have never heard of Trevor, his most notable mainstream exposure up to this point was a commercial for the FedEx Cup where he speaks into a hairbrush doing an imaginary winning speech, only to have Vijay Singh walk in on him. Immelman is a 28 year old South African golfer who most pegged as someone with immense talent. To put bluntly, he's the only modern day South African to have won the Masters, during a time when el Tigre is supposedly playing his best golf. Some notable South Africans....Ernie Els, whose most recent chance evaporated in 2004 when he put it in Rae's Creek on the 13...Retief Goosen, who made early bogey's to see his chances falter the same year, and Rory Sabbatini, who has about the loudest mouth on the Tour, and we're still waiting to see if his game will ever back up that mouth.

Gary Player, the greatest South African golfer to have ever played the game, has been a big fan of Trevor's since he was a little kid, and all Mr. Player did was win 9 Majors, 3 of which were the Masters. Congrats Trevor, you did what Sergio, Goosen, Els, and Mickleson couldn't do.

The most interesting stat of the week was that Immelman was -10 under on the Par 4's all week. For a course that was lengthened to "protect the integrity of the game" given technology, Tiger, etc. In 2007, Immelman ranked 39th in Driving distance (289 yds) and 64th in Driving Accuracy (69%), proving this year that the winner doesn't have to be the longest hitter to get it done at Augusta. I truly think the new strategy to win Majors takes place on days #1-3 of a Tournament. If you are ahead of Tiger after 3 rounds, it's your best chance at winning the Tournament.

Tiger's Wins when he doesn't lead after the 3rd round:

Congrats to Trevor Immelman. Well done, Robert Trent Jones was no doubt smiling down at you yesterday, even when he put your ball in a divot mark in the fairway on 18.

Final note about the Masters is the odds makers I went back to the odds for the Master's, and looked at the "payout" for the lines makers...Assuming that the lines represent efficient markets, where the odds didn't move due to late action, and all the bets were $1, the bookie's payout would be +$4. No doubt, they made a lot more if they got folks to bite on Tiger with bigger dollar amounts than others, but assuming every bet was a dollar, the net was +$4 to the House. House wins. Immelman wins. Tiger did not.

Masters Odds