Friday, January 25, 2008

TradeSports -- Electronic Market for Sporting Events is an electronic futures market that you can trade contracts on sporting events, as well as presidential elections, pretty much anything. There is a contract being trading on the exchange that lists the Patriots as +12.5 favorites (or conversely, the Giants as -12.5 underdogs). The chart below shows the action... (Click all charts to enlarge)

"Patriots +12.5 Favorites to Win Super Bowl XLII"

The contract opened at $51, but has traded lower (red line is price) since it opened on Jan 21. But you'll note that while the contract traded lower immediately, the volume (green bars) picked up on the Jan 22-23, when Brady was seen on and ESPN "limping" to his supermodel's apartment in NYC. This contract is one of the most heavily traded, so the contract's price decline suggests more and more folks believe the Giants might cover the initial +12.5 line for Super Bowl XLII. This contract's market gives you an idea of public sentiment leading up to the game from a line perspective...If you want to see sentiment on straight picking the game's winner, see the chart below, which is the futures contract "Giants will win"....We'll keep you posted.

Giant's will Win the Game
(Price Spiked after Brady seen limping)

Some other interesting Futures markets:

"US Will Go Into a Recession"
(Chances are increasing, as demand is picking up increasing price of contract...temporary declines are from Fed Rate Cuts and belief in Fiscal Stimulus)

"Hillary Gets 2008 Democratic Nomination"
(Price drop was after Iowa)

"Obama Gets 2008 Democratic Nomination"